Oil price rises reduce chemical demand.
But, in fact, end-use demand starts to fall when prices rise, as individuals cut back on discretionary spending to pay higher gasoline and heating bills.
Europe’s polyethylene market currently offers a clear example of this process in action. An excellent ICIS news report by Linda Naylor highlights how:
• “December monthly business is progressing normally”.
• “But extra sales are reported at much higher price levels”.
She also notes that buyers are “trying to obtain extra volumes in an effort to avoid higher prices in January“, whilst “many sellers had taken the decision to hold on to inventories“. As a result, LDPE prices for January are now talked €100/t ($130) higher than for December, with HDPE talked up to €160/t higher.
It is clearly impossible to stop this process, once it gets underway. Buyers are paid to buy below market, and sellers to sell above it, not the other way around. So if feedstock costs are moving higher, both sides have to react by building as much inventory as possible.
But demand for inventory is not the same as demand for consumption.