Boom/Gloom Index at a crossroad

Index Feb11.pngThe blog’s Boom/Gloom Index presents a fascinating picture this month.

The main Index (blue column) remains strongly positive, in keeping with the solid performance of most stock markets. It confirms evidence from other sentiment indices that investors are optimistic about the outlook.

But the Austerity index (red line) refuses to collapse. It is, of course, much lower than during the Eurozone crisis last May/June. But it is also very much higher than during the SuperCycle years until 2008.

These two different readings can continue for some time in an uneasy coexistence, as they did in June 2008, when the blog headed its post ‘High Inflation or Global Downturn?’.

Worryingly, much of its analysis still remains relevant today – if you have a minute, it may be worth clicking through to check for yourself.

The blog will therefore keep a very close eye on future developments, for clues as to how events may develop.

About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. Paul is also an invited member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such as oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.


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