Uncertainty over the Libyan situation is raising questions over the potential impact to its exports. The blog’s IeC colleague, Bob Townsend, has therefore done a quick analysis of the 3 main products that might be impacted – ethylene and propylene (blue columns), and methanol (green, right hand scale).
As the chart shows, using data from Global Trade information Services, the EU is the largest buyer for all 3 products. Taking average 2008-10 volumes:
• Ethylene. EU bought 64KT (55KT to Romania). Morocco bought 23KT.
• Propylene. EU bought 73KT (Greece 43KT, Germany/Belgium 10KT). Egypt took 12KT, Indonesia 10KT.
• Methanol. EU bought 418KT, with Italy 161KT, Spain 79KT, France 77KT, Greece 59KT the main consumers. Turkey bought 143KT.
These volumes can clearly be sourced elsewhere, although Mediterranean consumers will no doubt face increased voyage times. Hopefully this data will help those undertaking Scenario planning to determine how to minimise any disruption to their own positions.