Boom, Gloom and the New Normal – Chapter 2 published today

Chapter 2 of Boom, Gloom and the New Normal is published today.

In a completely new, and challenging analysis, we argue:

• The Western BabyBoomers boosted chemical demand for housing, autos and electronics during their peak consumption years between 1980-2000. But this demand is unlikely to be sustained, now they are entering the 55+ age group. A new SuperCycle is therefore extremely unlikely.

• Demographics ultimately drive chemical demand. Japan’s BabyBoom took place around a decade earlier than the West’s, and may therefore provide useful insight into the likely future course of events.

• Japan’s experience post-1990 seems to indicate that stimulus programmes cannot counter the impact of an ageing BabyBoom generation over the medium and longer-term.

• Equally, it suggests interest rates in the major economies could well fall significantly, as the 55+ generation starts to save more and spend less, to fund their potentially lengthy retirement.

• This means funding should be available to tackle the key megatrend issues that will drive the next wave of global growth: ageing populations, increasing food and water supply, and reducing carbon footprint.

Please click here to download this free Chapter. You can also click here to download the 2 page summary article in ICIS Chemical Business.

About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. He also serves as a Global Expert for the World Economic Forum. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry and the global economy over the next 12 – 18 months. It looks behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in critical areas such as oil prices, China and Emerging Markets, currencies, autos, housing, economic growth and the environment. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

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