Auto sales in the key global markets of China, USA and Europe present a mixed picture as we look towards year-end (red square):
• China had a strong September, and sales are now up 6% versus 2010
• But the Auto Association claimed this was due to a last minute rush of orders caused by the ending of subsidies on smaller engines
• They forecast Q4 sales will be down 5% as a result, and expect the market overall to be up just 3% in 2011
• Europe's September sales were steady, and down 1% in 2011
• Germany remains key, with sales up 11% so far in 2011
• In the other major markets, France is stable, whilst the UK is down 5%, Italy down 11% and Spain down 21%
• The US is up 11% versus 2011, but still adrift of the pre-2008 period
• In total, it should meet the blog's forecast of 11m-13m for the year
Overall, however, these 3 regions, which account for two thirds of global sales, are likely to show only minor growth of perhaps 3% in 2011, if China's sales fall as forecast. This is really not good news for a market which is of such key importance for the chemical industry.