Canada’s plastics industry has published important new research about the potential value of waste plastic. At the moment, any plastic not recycled goes to landfill – which is both costly and negative for the environment. Now their new research shows that Canada’s waste plastics could instead: • Produce 9mbd of oil equivalent hydrocarbons (worth $792m […]
Chemicals and the Economy
January shows worrying rise in force majeures
As the major regional economies continue to slow, more companies are starting to reduce capital budgets. Maintenance spending is always an easy target for a cutback. The cost of poor performance may not be seen for some time, whilst the bottom line sees an immediate benefit. Thus it is worth keeping a careful eye on […]
Warning flags fly over Europe’s olefin business
2012 was another difficult year for the European olefin industry. As the chart above shows, based on official APPE data, total ethylene volume was just 18.9MT. This was only just above 2009’s 18.8MT. Before that, we have to go back to 1997 to find an equivalent annual volume. And then the industry was still growing […]
Downside risks mount for China’s economy
What is the right conclusion to draw from the above graph? Much rests on the answer, as China’s polyethylene (PE) demand is a good indicator for the overall state of its consumer demand: • Was the dramatic leap in demand growth (blue column) in 2009 just a one-off? • Or are we likely to see […]
Markets slow as debt worries increase
The blog is becoming worried about the likely outlook for Q2. Sentiment now seems to be weakening alongside the fundamentals of supply/demand: • Fundamentals. The start of 2013 has been a disappointment. Demand has shown some recovery after the low levels seen at the end of Q4. But there have been few signs of any […]
Eurozone’s ‘Draghi rally’ faces election test in Italy
The president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, was ‘person of the year’ in financial markets with his July promise to “do whatever it takes” to save the euro. 6 months later, it seems worth checking on the current situation. The chart thus updates the position on interest rates (green column) in the weaker […]
Fed liquidity boosts oil prices as fundamentals weaken
Oil prices long ago moved away from the fundamentals, as the US Federal Reserve targeted asset price bubbles in a misguided effort to magic up consumption gains. Thus we have to focus on sentiment indicators, as in the chart above, to anticipate likely developments: • Monthly US oil inventories hit a new record for November […]
US house prices unlikely to drive economic recovery
When ‘everybody knows’ something, experience has taught the blog to become very suspicious. And when everybody knows that rising US house prices are certain to drive a US economic recovery, it becomes very suspicious: • For a start, as the above chart shows, the prices shown in the authoritative S&P Case-Shiller Index haven’t actually risen […]
China’s new leadership have major economic task ahead
The approach of Lunar New Year is a good moment to look back over the economic inheritance being left by president Hu and premier Wen as they handover to Xi and Li next month in China. Their strategy was to exploit the opportunity provided by China having finally joined the World Trade Organisation in December […]
Aging population means low US GDP and interest rates
Most commentators seemed surprised by last week’s news of weak US Q4 GDP growth. To help avoid similar shocks in future, the blog is pleased today to present its ‘cut out and keep guide’ to future levels of US GDP and interest rates. The guide has been successfully back-tested to 1962, when records begin for […]
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