About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. He also serves as a Global Expert for the World Economic Forum. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry and the global economy over the next 12 – 18 months. It looks behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in critical areas such as oil prices, China and Emerging Markets, currencies, autos, housing, economic growth and the environment. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

Author Archive | Paul Hodges

New Normal Jun10.png

Budgeting for a New Normal: a mid-year Update

The blog’s White Paper, ‘Budgeting for a New Normal’, proved enormously popular when it was published earlier this year. ICIS therefore suggested that it would be useful to update it, 6 months later. This Update is now published. It looks at the current state of the global economy, six months on, and then covers the […]

Continue Reading
Dalian Jun10.png

Dalian polymer volumes remain under pressure

China’s Dalian futures market has been the global centre of speculative polymers trading for over a year. It traded an amazing 80 million tonnes of LLDPE in April 2009, as excitement built. And volume (blue line) remained positive on a year-on-year basis until January. But since then, comparisons have been negative: • February’s volumes were […]

Continue Reading
DJI May10.png

Dow Jones Index has worst May since 1940

‘Sell in May and go away’ seemed a good tactic to the blog at the beginning of the month. It worried that we might now be approaching the ‘drawn-out fundamental downtrend’ phase of the current cycle. And in spite of several major ‘relief’ and ‘short-covering’ rallies, financial markets have continued to suffer. The US Dow […]

Continue Reading

Chemical price falls could signal slowdown

The blog’s White Paper, Budgeting for a New Normal, has proved extraordinarily popular since it was published earlier this year. As a result, ICIS have asked me to produce a mid-year Update, to review developments over the past 6 months. This will appear shortly. In the meantime, ICIS’ Will Beacham interviewed me in London’s Trafalgar […]

Continue Reading
Borrowing May10.png

Major banks seem to “window-dress” their accounts

Its bad enough that many of the world’s major banks collectively lost $4 trn, whilst continuing to pay themselves $bns in bonuses. Equally sad was the fact that the heads of these banks seemed unable to understand the simple principle of fiduciary duty, when asked by the US Congress about their responsibilities to clients. But […]

Continue Reading
HDPE May10.png

Asian polymer prices and margins begin to fall

A month ago, Nigel Davis called attention in his ICIS Insight column to the alarming fall taking place in US ethylene values. He noted that “inventories seem to have filled“, and presciently concluded that “buyers have been on the look-out for the turn and, by all accounts, expect any downward movement to be swift and […]

Continue Reading
US housing May10.png

US housing remains weak as foreclosures rise

The problems in US housing remain a major cause of concern for global chemical markets. As the above chart shows – from the American Chemistry Council (ACC) weekly report – housing starts (blue line) and building permits (red) are still at very low levels. April’s housing starts were up 41% versus 2009 to 672k. And […]

Continue Reading
Euroautos May10.png

EU auto sales fall 7% in April

April 2009 wasn’t a great month for EU auto sales. Volumes (red line) were down 11.6% versus April 2008. But sales were starting to benefit from the introduction of government scrappage schemes. A year later, as the above chart from ACEA (the European auto manu-facturers association) shows, this support has begun to fade: • April […]

Continue Reading
S&P 500 May10.png

Preparing for an Age of Austerity in public spending

The blog has sometimes despaired of the cheer-leading and wishful thinking of too many leading policy-makers. As I argued in the Financial Times in March 2007, before the Crisis began, “they seem to confuse being market-friendly with being friendly to markets“. It therefore welcomes the realism being shown by the UK’s new coalition government. Today, […]

Continue Reading
WTI May10.png

Crude oil falls as markets reassess economic outlook

On 6 May, the blog warned that “it would be very nervous indeed about holding a long position” in crude oil. And as the chart shows, its fears were well-founded. Since 4 May: • WTI has fallen 19%, and $16/bbl, from its $86/bbl peak • The euro has also fallen 8%, and 6c, versus the […]

Continue Reading