About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. Paul is also an invited member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

Author Archive | Paul Hodges

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Buffett focuses on long term value-creation

The BBC had a very interesting interview last night with Warren Buffett, the world’s most successful investor and wealthiest man. Buffett stakes out a clear position on the relative unimportance of financial services in the economy, and on whether there is a need to “motivate” bankers via large bonuses: • “The idea that people who […]

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Japan says economic recovery “unpredictable”

The blog has learnt to be sceptical when new political leaders announce new directions for their country, after winning elections. But its Japanese friends emphasised at EPCA that real change might be taking place in Japan, after 50 years of LDP government. This, of course, could have a major impact on Asian politics. Japan is […]

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Thursday’s Free Webinar on the Budget Outlook

The blog’s new Budget Outlook is an independent view of the key issues which will impact chemical sales and margins in 2010. Previous Outlooks have stimulated much debate within the industry. We are therefore arranging a free 1 hour Webinar for blog readers, on Thursday at 15:00 GMT (16:00 CET, 11:00 EDT, 19:00 Dubai). The […]

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China exports deflation as it adds capacity

China will pump loans worth $1.3trn into its economy this year, equal to 1/3rd of GDP. Equally, by tying the yuan to the US$, China has achieved a major devaluation against major currencies such as the euro. The result has been that China’s Q3 GDP rose less in “nominal” terms than in “real” terms. Normally […]

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Leverage returns to financial markets

Gillian Tett, the blog’s favourite financial journalist, highlights today the rampant speculative behaviour in financial markets around the world. Quoting a senior banker, she notes that “highly leveraged short-term trades are back in vogue“. She adds that “traders feel stupid if they don’t leverage up“. The basis for the speculation is that “central bankers have […]

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Wilton update

9 months ago, the blog reported on the resilience being shown at the UK’s Wilton chemical site, one of the world’s largest. It noted that “the power of the teams being created there could be immense“. It is therefore delighted to see that the North East Process Industry Cluster (NEPIC) is now moving forward on […]

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Quote of the year

“Never in the field of financial endeavour has so much money been owed by so few to so many. And, one might add, so far with little real reform.” Bank of England Governor, Mervyn King, proposing that banks should be split up. He argues that high-risk trading activities should be split off from low-risk utility […]

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China imposes 36% nylon tariff

Protectionism continues to build, as unemployment rises around the world. ICIS news reports China has imposed tariffs of up to 36% on nylon 6. BASF will suffer a 30.4% tariff on US exports, and Honeywell 36.2%. Last month, of course, the US hit China with a 35% tariff on tyres. The threat of more duty […]

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Oil hits $80/bbl

The blog should award itself a pat on the back, now its May forecast of $80/bbl crude has come true. And it is pleased to maintain its 100% record in forecasting the direction and level of oil prices. But it still regrets the lack of substance behind the so-called ‘correlation trade’ between oil, the US$ […]

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Beth Tweddle, world champion

The blog sends its congratulations to Beth Tweddle, new world champion in the gymnastic floor exercises. It had the pleasure of working with her father, Jerry Tweddle (now with Ineos), for many years at ICI. Beth is everything that a world champion should be. A video of her winning performance (possibly made by Jerry?) can […]

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