About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. He also serves as a Global Expert for the World Economic Forum. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry and the global economy over the next 12 – 18 months. It looks behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in critical areas such as oil prices, China and Emerging Markets, currencies, autos, housing, economic growth and the environment. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

Author Archive | Paul Hodges

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Saudi says oil at $70 – $80/bbl is a “perfect price”

OPEC’s Angola meeting lasted just 70 minutes yesterday. Before the session, Saudi Oil Minister al-Naimi noted that prices were at their target level of $70-$80/bbl, and called this “a perfect price”. However, the underlying supply/demand balance remains fragile. As the chart from Nomura shows, current OECD oil/product inventories are well above normal levels. Whilst today’s […]

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P&G warn on global protectionism

P&G’s new CEO, Robert McDonald, has “warned of the risks to global growth posed by increased protectionism in the US and around the world, stemming from the global recession“. interviewed by the Financial Times, McDonald noted that 20% of P&G’s jobs in the US depend on their international business, which accounts for 60% of P&G’s […]

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Volcker calls for meaningful financial reform

Paul Volcker was the last US Federal Reserve chairman who believed that a key part of its role was “to take away the punchbowl just when the party starts getting interesting“. He successfully brought inflation back to single figures during the 1980′s downturn, setting the scene for the major economic recovery that followed. Now head […]

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Feldstein says US recession “isn’t over”

Harvard’s Prof Martin Feldstein is one of the very few economists who has correctly forecast the length of the current downturn. Today, he questions whether the US recession is really over, and suggests that “2010 is going to be a very weak year“. He believes that we are entering a more frugal economy, and notes […]

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Germany calls Greece’s problems “tip of the iceberg”

Financial crises take time to mature. Yet until the end is nigh, apologists will insist that nothing needs to change. Thus valuable time is wasted. Last year, Iceland was the obvious example of this problem. Now it is Greece, a eurozone member. Back in January, S&P had downgraded Greece’s bonds, due to debt concerns. And […]

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EU auto sales stabilise thanks to subsidies

EU auto sales continued to improve in November versus 2008, with total volumes up 27%. But as the chart from ACEA (EU Automobile Manufacturers Assoc) shows, they were still lower than in 2007. The difference between sales in W Europe, and in the new EU Central European states (EU CE), was quite dramatic. Sales in […]

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New York considers a more frugal way of life

The blog continues to believe that the current downturn is a transition period, at least in the West, towards a more frugal way of life. And its theory has received a boost from a New York Times feature which suggests this might be happening in the bastion of consumerism, New York. The NYT suggests the […]

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Chemicals could gain from energy savings need

“The most important ‘fuel’ of all, will be energy saved through fuel efficiency“. That’s ExxonMobil’s (EM) latest view of the outlook for meeting world energy demand over the next 20 years. And as Nigel Davis highlights in ICIS insight, this “will require materials and innovation – the backbone for the chemicals industry“. EM expect “40% […]

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Mexico locks in $57/bbl oil price for 2010

For most of this year, the banks’ trading houses have been earning vast sums of money promoting the “correlation trade” (sell the US$, buy crude oil, gold and equities). As a result, around 150mbbls of oil and oil products is now in floating storage, with much more on land. Next year, the same traders and […]

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UK to tax bank bonuses at 90%

“The more things change, the more they stay the same“. Or, as the blog’s French-speaking readership might say, “plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose“. When the blog started work in the chemical industry, in 1978, it was possible to pay up to 114% of one’s income as tax in the UK, if one […]

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