About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. He also serves as a Global Expert for the World Economic Forum. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry and the global economy over the next 12 – 18 months. It looks behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in critical areas such as oil prices, China and Emerging Markets, currencies, autos, housing, economic growth and the environment. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

Author Archive | Paul Hodges

energy efficiency.JPG

Chemicals could gain from energy savings need

“The most important ‘fuel’ of all, will be energy saved through fuel efficiency“. That’s ExxonMobil’s (EM) latest view of the outlook for meeting world energy demand over the next 20 years. And as Nigel Davis highlights in ICIS insight, this “will require materials and innovation – the backbone for the chemicals industry“. EM expect “40% […]

Continue Reading
Oil rig right.jpg

Mexico locks in $57/bbl oil price for 2010

For most of this year, the banks’ trading houses have been earning vast sums of money promoting the “correlation trade” (sell the US$, buy crude oil, gold and equities). As a result, around 150mbbls of oil and oil products is now in floating storage, with much more on land. Next year, the same traders and […]

Continue Reading
bonus pig.jpg

UK to tax bank bonuses at 90%

“The more things change, the more they stay the same“. Or, as the blog’s French-speaking readership might say, “plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose“. When the blog started work in the chemical industry, in 1978, it was possible to pay up to 114% of one’s income as tax in the UK, if one […]

Continue Reading
Teessidea left.jpg

Teesside’s £30m to develop low carbon industry

The blog is delighted to see that the UK government has now allocated GBP30m to: “Equip Teesside to move beyond traditional heavy industry to realise its potential to be part of our low carbon manufacturing base. “This includes investment in redevelopment of industrial land and infrastructure. “It also includes investment to establish bio-based materials, to […]

Continue Reading
Tesco cart.jpg

Tesco say price-cutting will continue

Q3 comments from Tesco, the world’s 3rd largest retailer, confirm the picture of a more frugal consumer suggested by other majors. On the positive side, they report “a material improvement” in sales “in both Asia and Europe“. And Tesco expect “this trend to continue into Q4 and beyond”. But on the less positive side, CFO […]

Continue Reading
Dalian Dec09.JPG

Dalian LLDPE prices now seem to follow crude oil

China’s Dalian polymer futures market continues to have a major influence on regional, and global, polyethylene markets. But November’s trading volume was lower than a year ago, at 25 million tonnes. This is the first negative annual growth since volume took off in June last year. Last month, the blog noted a comment from LyondellBasell […]

Continue Reading

UK to tax bankers’ bonuses

UK Finance Minister Alistair Darling is widely reported today as being about to announce a ‘super-tax’ on bonuses paid to bankers working in the UK. The government’s argument, notes the BBC’s Robert Peston, is that “Investment banks are making exceptional profits, as a result of the intervention of government and the Bank of England to […]

Continue Reading

INEOS considers asset sale as it continues to re-shape its business

The blog has recently noted a major change of mindset in the financial community. As the Financial Times commented this week: “For the first time in a long time, banks seem to be in control of their lending policies. During the credit boom, the banks were held hostage by companies and private equity groups, as […]

Continue Reading
Inventory Dec09.JPG

2010 may see seasonal demand patterns resume

The American Chemistry Council’s excellent weekly report contains some potentially good news on the outlook for Q1 demand. Its detailed analysis of US polymer markets (above) suggests customers are currently reducing their inventories. CFO’s presumably assume that the main impact of the housing/auto stimulus programmes is now finished, and are no doubt keen to keep […]

Continue Reading
Index Dec09.JPG

Boom/Gloom Index remains range-bound

The momentum-driven rally in financial markets has slowed recently, with many now in temporary trading ranges. And this is reflected in December’s IeC Boom/Gloom Index (above). The Index (blue column) has been steady since June. Underlying fundamentals show no sign of improvement. The ‘green shoots’ index (green line), which tracks expectations for a quick economic […]

Continue Reading