About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. He also serves as a Global Expert for the World Economic Forum. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry and the global economy over the next 12 – 18 months. It looks behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in critical areas such as oil prices, China and Emerging Markets, currencies, autos, housing, economic growth and the environment. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

Author Archive | Paul Hodges

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Polyolefin demand follows GDP/capita

The blog was in Vienna this week for a World Refining Association conference on the Global Petrochemical outlook. It had the privilege of chairing a very distinguished panel of industry leaders in a discussion about managing through the downturn. One of the key inputs came from Anton de Vries, LyondellBasell SVP, who had earlier shown […]

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‘Budgeting for a New Normal’ White Paper

The blog is delighted to learn from ICIS that thousands of copies of its new White Paper, ‘Budgeting for a New Normal’, have been downloaded in the first week of publication. Please click here if you would like to obtain a free copy.

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5 signs of a failing business

The Toyota problems, with over 9 million autos being recalled around the world, has set the blog thinking about how to spot corporate disaster in the making. One excellent source of insight is Prof Jim Collins’ book, ‘How the Mighty Fall’, published last year. This suggests that doomed businesses pass through 5 key stages. Encouragingly, […]

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Iran adds floating oil storage, contango weakens

Iran has begun storing crude oil offshore again, according to Bloomberg, as demand in its major market, Japan, enters a seasonal slowdown. It has 6mbd on ships in the Persian Gulf (equal to 19% of current storage for the WTI contract at Cushing in the USA). Another 2 ships also seem to be being used […]

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Anti-Dumping cases on the rise

Anti-dumping duties (ADDs) are on the rise, as countries seek to protect their own manufacturers. The most publicised ADDs so far, of course, were those by the US on Chinese tyres in September. In retaliation, China hit companies such as BASF with duties on US produced nylon 6. Separately, India imposed an ADD on caustic […]

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China’s speculative surge nears the end

One can only feel sorry for China’s government leaders. A year ago, they faced 23m unemployed, as their export markets collapsed in the West. In order to avoid major social unrest, they opted to unleash what the Wall Street Journal called “one of the biggest credit expansions in history“. $1.4trn was lent during 2009, in […]

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‘Budgeting for a New Normal’ White Paper

ICIS have now published the blog’s 2010 Budget webinar as a White Paper. Please click here if you would like to obtain a free copy. My thanks go to Nigel Davis for his editing skills, and to Jamie Barnes for masterminding publication.

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US job losses hold back consumer spending

SOURCE: WWW.CHARTOFTHEDAY.COMUS consumers were responsible for 16% of total world GDP in 2008. But their spending is taking a battering from the combination of high unemployment and high oil prices. Both are reducing end-user demand for chemical products. New government estimates suggest US employment has fallen by 8.4m jobs since the downturn started in December […]

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Toyota’s Quality problems hit US auto sales

In August, Toyota (red line) briefly replaced GM (blue) as the US industry leader. Last month, however, its recall problems meant its sales fell 16% versus last January, an even worse performance than Chrysler (purple). Toyota’s problems are generally bad news for the industry, as they will inevitably impact overall public perceptions. Some will suspect […]

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No news on Obama’s plans for Fannie and Freddie

Its nearly 18 months since the US government nationalised the 2 home loan giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, at the start of the September 2008 financial crisis. Today, their current obligations amount to $3.7trn – larger that the total UK economy. And the Wall Street Journal notes that their cumulative losses on home loans […]

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