This year’s speculative boom in China’s economy, created by major government lending and stimulus programmes, now seems to be ending. The evidence for this is in the above chart, showing LLDPE futures trading on the Dalian exchange. This hit 80 million tonnes (MT) in April, versus total global output for this type of polyethylene of […]
About Paul HodgesPaul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. He also serves as a Global Expert for the World Economic Forum. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry and the global economy over the next 12 – 18 months. It looks behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in critical areas such as oil prices, China and Emerging Markets, currencies, autos, housing, economic growth and the environment. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.
Author Archive | Paul Hodges
“Buy on the rumour, sell on the news” is the classic indication of a weak market. A lack of follow-through buying reveals that market action is not supported by fundamentals, but only by sentiment and momentum. Friday’s 2.8% fall on the US S&P 500, in reaction to Thursday’s positive US GDP number, was therefore a […]
The good news is that the stabilisation seen in Q2 has been maintained. But companies remain cautious on the outlook, to judge from Q3 reports. CEOs are sceptical about the impact of government stimulus efforts in the West, and fear demand will fall back as these end. The only optimists are in China and India. […]
The blog is very pleased to have been named one of ‘5 Great Chemical Industry Blogs’ by Joe Acker, president of the US Society of Chemical Manufacturers & Affiliates (SOCMA). Mr Acker notes in his comment on the blog: “Everyone wants to keep an eye on the market. Paul Hodges does a great job of […]
Many thanks to everyone who joined the Webinar today. I hope you found it useful.
The purpose of liquidity in financial markets is to enable price discovery. But when super-fast computers take over the trading, that purpose disappears. Instead, we have today’s “correlation trading“. Olivier Jakob of PetroMatrix demonstrates this with the above chart, which shows Tuesday’s detailed trading patterns in WTI and the Dow Jones Index. Clearly, they are […]
Over the past year, much of the Western financial system has been on life support. Now the European Central Bank (ECB), like its peers, is grappling with the question of ‘What happens next?’ ECB Board member Lorenzo Smaghi set out the key issues yesterday: • “Our role (as a central bank) is limited to the […]
Thursday’s free Budget Outlook Webinar will be held at 15:00 GMT (16:00 CET, 11:00 EDT, 19:00 Dubai). The format will be a 30-40 minute presentation, followed by online discussion. To make registration easy, it will now be hosted using Microsoft Live Meeting. If you would like to join the Webinar for the presentation, please click […]
The BBC had a very interesting interview last night with Warren Buffett, the world’s most successful investor and wealthiest man. Buffett stakes out a clear position on the relative unimportance of financial services in the economy, and on whether there is a need to “motivate” bankers via large bonuses: • “The idea that people who […]
The blog has learnt to be sceptical when new political leaders announce new directions for their country, after winning elections. But its Japanese friends emphasised at EPCA that real change might be taking place in Japan, after 50 years of LDP government. This, of course, could have a major impact on Asian politics. Japan is […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such as oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.