About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

Author Archive | Paul Hodges

Interesting quotes (5)

Every now and then, a few interesting quotes come along, which seem to recent summarise developments, and set the tone for the next few months. Recent days have been a good example of this process at work: ‘The era of cheap energy is over, as oil production isn’t rising fast enough to meet demand amid […]

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US natural gas prices rise 65%

The US price for natural gas has risen faster than crude so far this year. It is already up almost 65%. Rising coal and oil prices have encouraged power generators to switch to gas, whilst lower Canadian exports and a tight global LNG market have helped to push prices higher. Increasing demand for ethanol will […]

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High inflation, or global downturn?

Central bankers had it easy over the past decade. Now they are going to have to earn their money. Inflation is rising rapidly, and growth rates are falling. But unfortunately, as I first noted back in March, they still seem to have differing ideas about what policies will best counter these twin challenges.

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Dow warns on US economy

US economic conditions are ‘ominous”, and may worsen into 2009, according to Dow CEO, Andrew Liveris. “A month ago we might have said … the US slowdown could be bottoming, but I don’t think it is bottoming,” Liveris said in response to analysts’ questions at an investor conference in New York. He added that “I […]

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Father Christmas didn’t visit last month

Yesterday’s action in financial markets reminded me of the Bird/Fortune video (noted here in December), where they took a satirical look at the causes of the sub-prime debacle. Specifically, the question in the interview where Fortune describes Bird as a ‘sophisticated investment banker, with his fingers right on the pulse’. The moment that recalled this […]

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Leadership – its a team thing

The blog doesn’t often comment on management issues. But one interesting article has caught my eye today. A major study reported in the Financial Times suggests that ‘leadership teams were four times as important as leaders in the process of developing strategy’. And it quotes Lee Scott, Wal-Mart’s CEO as saying that ‘I don’t run […]

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Fuel subsidies to double in 2008

Fuel subsidies are set to double this year to at least $100bn, according to the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Nobuo Tanaka. This is in spite of the fact that some countries such as Taiwan have recently abolished subsidies, whilst others such as Indonesia have reduced them significantly. But for every subsidy withdrawn, […]

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China cuts back ethylene to boost fuel

Some minor relief may be at hand for hard-pressed cracker operators, particularly those in Asia. Sinopec announced today that it will reduce ethylene output by 65 KT in June (the equivalent of 1 cracker’s output), in order to allow it to boost fuel production by 200 KT. This will be done by bringing forward planned […]

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Interest rates start to rise

Last month, I noted the suggestion by leading bankers that interest rates would probably rise by the end of May. The rationale for this view was that the bigger, stronger banks seemed to have got fed up with subsidising the rates being charged via LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offer Rate) to weaker banks. And sure enough, […]

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Dow raises prices by up to 20%

Dow today announced that it is raising prices for ‘all of its products by up to 20 percent – depending on their exposure to rising energy, feedstock and transportation costs – and will review all terms to all customers’. Dow CEO, Andrew Liveris, said that Dow’s ‘first quarter feedstock and energy bill leapt a staggering […]

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