About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. Paul is also an invited member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

Author Archive | Paul Hodges

US entered recession a year ago – official

Last March, the blog supported Warren Buffett’s statement that “by any commonsense definition, the US is in recession”. I also wrote an article for ICB in April, “Building your defences“, to suggest how companies could develop contingency plans to deal with the “real threat” of recession. At the time, government figures did not support Buffett’s […]

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Saudi Arabia calls for $75/bbl oil

The King of Saudi Arabia is the most important person in the oil industry. He controls the largest oil reserves, and is the largest single producer. Previous Kings have let their Oil Ministers do the talking at OPEC meetings, and to the world’s press. But King Abdullah, who succeeded in 2005, has recently become more […]

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Japan’s industrial output collapses as exports dive

Japan has an ageing population. Since 1990, it has relied on exports to boost its economy. Yesterday, official figures showed industrial production is now being badly affected by the global recession. Output fell 3.1% in October, and a 6.4% decline is expected in November. Observers forecast the September – December period could see an “unprecedented” […]

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Hope for recovery, plan for downturn

Surprisingly, our 7th European conference this week in Cologne (co-organised with ICIS), was one of our most successful. Delegate numbers were down, as companies cut travel budgets. But those attending said they had gained much more, than if they had stayed in the office. For a start, there was the opportunity to share experiences, and […]

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Financial Times recognises the blog

The Queen of England recently asked “Why did nobody see the financial crisis coming?” The Financial Times took the view that “Some did, Ma’am. Some did.” It then initiated a search for these people. Today’s Financial Times now recognises some of those who correctly warned that financial crisis was close. I am sure readers will […]

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US housing weakens again

US housing continues to weaken as the financial crisis of the past 2 months takes its toll of prospective homebuyers. Yesterday’s Case-Shiller index of house prices showed a “broad-based decline” in September, posting record annual declines of 17%. Similarly, the above chart from the ACC’s weekly report shows new housing starts (red line) at a […]

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“An economic crisis of historic proportions”

President-elect Obama has become the latest world leader to “get it”, as his wife Michelle once remarked. For far long, politicians seemed to believe their platitudes about the “underlying strength” of their national economies. This meant their proposed remedies were reactive, and usually unworkable. More recently, the blog has also worried that the USA faced […]

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World Bank warns on China growth

The World Bank has cut its growth forecast for China’s GDP to just 7.5% next year. Only 3 months ago, it was expecting 9.2%. And the Bank warns that the economy is dependent on “higher public spending” for more than half its forecast growth next year. Chemical companies will also be alarmed by the Bank’s […]

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UK cuts sales tax to fight deflation

The UK’s Finance Minister, Alistair Darling, was the first western leader to warn that the current recession was the worst in 60 years. He was also the first to effectively nationalise major banks, to stave off their collapse. Now he has become the first to try to tackle the real threat of deflation, by cutting […]

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The end of the beginning

Last week’s BASF announcement marked the end of Phase One of the downturn. This began over a year ago, with the first signs of financial crisis. Now, we will move into Phase Two – a long, multi-year recession, which will probably include several bear-market rallies. The end of this “beginning” Phase is seeing a disastrous […]

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