About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. He also serves as a Global Expert for the World Economic Forum. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry and the global economy over the next 12 – 18 months. It looks behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in critical areas such as oil prices, China and Emerging Markets, currencies, autos, housing, economic growth and the environment. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

Author Archive | Paul Hodges

2016′s Word of the Year: “Impossible”

Nobody likes change, particularly on the scale that is taking place all around us today.  Understandably, we prefer to live in a state of Denial.  This is why “Impossible” is my Word of the Year for 2016. The main feature of the word is that it is a statement, and a very clear statement.  People […]

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India’s currency reforms hitting ordinary people, the economy and auto/oil demand

It is now just over a month since India introduced the biggest currency reform the world has ever seen.  In a country of 1.3bn people, it abolished the 2 main banknotes (worth $207bn), that accounted for 86% of all cash in circulation. At 20:15 hours on 8 November, the government announced that the 500 and 1,000 […]

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OPEC move supports US oil production rise, and smart meters

OPEC is living in the past with its recent announcement of new quotas. The simple fact is that the arrival of US shale production means OPEC are no longer the swing producer, able to control the world market. The quotas will have little effect in themselves, as most of the participants will cheat.  Instead, they […]

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House prices Dec16

London house prices start their collapse

London’s house market has been slowing for some time, as I noted last year.  The issue is affordability.  Artificially low interest rates make the monthly payment seem cheap.  But the key question is whether your salary will allow you to repay the capital borrowed over time. Sadly, this has become increasingly impossible for many actual […]

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Midway Atoll becomes “plastic island” due to our throwaway society

Plastics have made an enormous contribution to improving our quality of life over the past 75 years.  Polyethylene (discovered in 1933), polypropylene, PVC, polystyrene, PET and many others have made our lives safer, and easier:   Plastic pipes have removed the risk of lead poisoning from our water, and helped to reduce water lost in […]

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Futures markets, US shale, the big winners from OPEC meeting

There were only two winners from the past 3 months of OPEC’s “Will they?, Won’t they?” debate on output cutbacks. Iran wasn’t one of them – although the talks did emphasise its renewed ability to control the OPEC agenda.  Nor was Saudi Arabia, forced to accept the lion’s share of the proposed cutbacks. Instead, the […]

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2017 Global Outlook – ACS webinar on Thursday

This year has seen a paradigm shift in how major governments view trade.  We may well be seeing an end to globalisation:   In Europe, the United Kingdom voted to leave the E.U., and Italy may well have a referendum on leaving the euro   In the U.S., President-Elect Donald Trump’s 100-day Action Plan will see […]

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The world in 2020 – an update on our forecasts in ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal’

All of us would love to be able to see into the future. And 5 years after the publication of ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal: How the Ageing of the Western BabyBoomers is Changing Demand Patterns, Again‘, it seems timely to review its 10 predictions about how the world will look in 2020:  […]

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Chemical industry flags rising risk of global recession in 2017, with Trump set to “clear the decks” at the start of his first term

The chemical industry is the best leading indicator that we have for the global economy.  It has an excellent correlation with IMF data, and also benefits from the fact it has no “political bias”.  It simply tells us what is happening in real-time in the world’s 3rd largest industry. Sadly, the news is not good. […]

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Populism rises as global dynamics drive market shifts

We are living in a New Normal world.  Populists such as Nigel Farage, Donald Trump, Marine le Pen and Beppe Grillo are gaining support as economic growth slows and social/political unrest becomes common.  My presentation at our annual conference last week in Vienna highlighted some of the key issues, as Jessie Waldheim of ICIS news […]

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