About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. He also serves as a Global Expert for the World Economic Forum. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry and the global economy over the next 12 – 18 months. It looks behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in critical areas such as oil prices, China and Emerging Markets, currencies, autos, housing, economic growth and the environment. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

Author Archive | Paul Hodges

The digital vortex is coming to a business near you

The average smartphone now has “more computing power than the computers used during the Apollo era to put the first men on the moon.“ The question facing all of us, is “How will this power be used to disrupt our current business? We can already see some of the early impacts from the transformation taking place: □  Most […]

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Stocks Sept16

Investors panic in “search for yield” as interest rates go negative

Its been a great few months for financial markets.  All the major markets have seen gains, as the chart shows – something that has happened only once before, since my half-yearly reviews began in March 2009: □   Long-term US Treasury bonds have gained, as long-term interest rates have been falling □   The 30-year bond […]

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Aging Boomers to play key role in US Presidential election, as policy failures lead to a Great Reckoning

Today is the Labor Day holiday in the USA, and the traditional start of the Presidential election campaign.  For 2 years, the candidates have been rushing around the country in pursuit of money, endorsements and primary election wins. Now they enter the final stage, when they can finally focus on winning the Presidency itself. The […]

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If “Brexit means Brexit”, what does Brexit mean?

The summer is over, and the UK government now has the job of deciding its objectives for the Brexit negotiations. These, like all major negotiations, will no doubt be long and difficult.  They will also inevitably create major uncertainty for companies, investors and individuals as they progress. I have personally led major negotiations in a […]

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You’ve seen the Great Unwinding; get ready for the Great Reckoning

Companies and investors now need to prepare for the Great Reckoning, as I describe in my latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog We have reached the second anniversary of the Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus. Almost inevitably, this now seems likely to be followed by a Great Reckoning, a consequence […]

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Risks rise for global economy as chemical capacity surplus grows

“The Federal Reserve Needs New Thinking.  Its models are unreliable, its policies erratic and its guidance confusing. It is also politically vulnerable.”  Former Fed Governor, Kevin Warsh. “The Great Unraveling.  Years of Fed Missteps Fueled Disillusion With the Economy and Washington.”  Main headline, Wall Street Journal. There comes a point, as in 2008, when the […]

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Pensions crisis finally becomes a mainstream issue

It has been 5 years since we first warned of a looming pensions crisis in Boom, Gloom and the New Normal.  Now, finally, it is becoming a mainstream issue.  The latest round of central bank stimulus policies has clearly been the proverbial “straw that breaks the camel’s back” for anyone connected with pension funding. The […]

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China becomes net PTA exporter, whilst cotton prices tumble

China used to be the world’s largest importer of PTA (the raw material for polyester). But not any more. Instead it has become a net exporter for the first time in history: □  Its imports ramped up from 400kt in 1995 to 7 million tonnes in 2006, as Western textile manufacturing moved East □  They […]

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Suspense rises as Great Unwinding becomes the Great Reckoning

“There is a distinct difference between “suspense” and “surprise.”  Alfred Hitchcock It is now 2 years since the start of the Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus.  On 15 August 2014, Brent was at $105/bbl, and the US$ Index was at 81. Since then, as the chart shows, Brent oil prices have fallen 53%, whilst the […]

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US jobs Aug16a

US pensioners pay the price for Fed’s monetary policy failure

There was one bit of good news this week.  For the first time since the financial crisis began, a Governor of the US Federal Reserve acknowledged that today’s demographic changes are having a major impact on the US economy. John Williams, of the San Francisco Fed, argued that: “Shifting demographics….(mean that) interest rates are going […]

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