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H1 sees worst-ever number of chemical plant force majeures

The first half of 2015 was the worst half-year for force majeures in the chemical industry since reliable data became available via ICIS news in 2005.  As the chart shows, there were 479 reports of outages, more than double H1 2014 and well above the previous peak of 375 in H1 2011. This is absolutely […]

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ICIS Innovation Awards could be key to your future success

Innovation is the life-blood of the chemical industry. It is also a critical success factor as we transition to the New Normal. Many of today’s plants and processes are simply too old and inefficient to remain competitive in a world of slow and volatile economic growth. Equally important is that changing demand patterns will demand […]

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US producers face uphill battle to increase PE sales in China

China is the world’s largest polyethylene market.  One-third of the way through the year, it  is therefore interesting to analyse the ratio of its own production versus imports, and look at relative import market shares.  The chart shows annual data since 2005, with 2015 data to April, based on trade data from Global Trade Information […]

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Chemical companies highlight increased uncertainty and volatility in Q1 results

Volatility creates uncertainty.  And uncertainty can easily lead to paralysis, if a company hasn’t planned ahead for the range of potential scenarios that might develop.  This is the risk highlighted in my usual analysis of quarterly results. A key warning sign is the divide that has developed recently in performance in different regions and industry sectors, […]

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PE exporters face problems as China slows, global capacity expands

China no longer wants to be the ‘manufacturing capital of the world’.  Its ‘New Normal’ policies are instead taking it in a new direction, where growth will be based on income levels, not property wealth effects.  So this seems a good moment to step back, and focus on the changes this is likely to bring. […]

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Lower oil prices support European cracker operating rates

Who would have believed, a few years ago, that European cracker operators would see an operating rate of 84% as something to celebrate?  It would have been thought a disaster prior to 2008, when rates typically ranged around 90%. But whilst nobody is flying flags, last year was the best year since 2007.  And as […]

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China’s PE imports tumble as market slows, local output rises

The above chart is a major wake-up call for anyone who still believes that China will continue to import ever-increasing volumes of major commodities such as polyethylene (PE).  It suggests demand and import growth are now at much lower levels than in the past, and may even have begun to peak. The chart shows cumulative volumes in […]

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Sinopec Mar15

Sinopec confirms move into China’s New Normal economy

Sinopec, China’s largest chemical company, has just published its operating results for 2014.  We don’t yet have all the details, but the chart above highlights the key points of its cumulative performance since it first filed public accounts in 1998: It has invested Rmb 288bn ($41bn) in capital expenditure for refining, and Rmb 239bn ($33bn) for chemicals (blue columns) […]

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Market volatility highlights dangers for Q2

Today’s market conditions are some of the most dangerous that I can ever remember. Of course, markets are always unpredictable.  As UK prime minister Harold MacMillan noted in the 1960s, when asked what kept him awake at nights.  “Events, dear boy, events”.  But today’s markets have a 3-dimensional unpredictability: They have the normal issue of trying to understand fundamental levels […]

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Chemical markets see major slowdown since Q2

Chemical production is a time-proven leading indicator for the global economy.  And as the chart above shows, it has been signalling that a downturn is underway since April.  Based on American Chemistry Council data, it highlights: Global growth peaked at 5% in April and was down to 3.3% in January (black line) Only the N American […]

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