Henry Mintzberg is one of the blog’s favourite management gurus. The reason is that he understands the constraints under which most managers operate. His view is that the best managers aren’t Superman or Superwoman, but “are simply ordinary, healthy people who aren’t too screwed up“. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, he outlines […]
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Companies normally have 3 ways of pleasing investors: • Meet or better expectations for revenue and earnings • Cut costs to meet earnings if revenues disappoint • Focus attention on a more favourable earnings definition When things are going well, the first option is preferred. But under the pressure of a sustained economic downturn, it […]
The latest OPEC monthly oil report paints a bearish picture of the market. It expects OPEC to supply 28.4mbd in 2009, down 7.5% from 2008 levels. And it forecasts more of the same for 2010, expecting to supply just 28 mbd. Its analysis suggests that “the market is still fundamentally weak amid ample stocks of […]
Last week, Nissan said its new Leaf model had achieved 367 mpg (156 kpl) in city driving. And this week, GM said its Volt could get an average 100 mpg rating. Pedro Spohr of Galp in Portugal was therefore clearly right last October, when he suggested to the blog that the new range of electric […]
Cerberus’ timing was clearly not very good with its Chrysler acquisition in Q3 2007. And Steve Feinberg, Cerberus co-founder, admitted this when he told the New York Times “we were too optimistic on timing. Maybe what we should have done was not bought it.” So far, they have lost $6bn of their original $7.4bn investment. […]
As regular readers will know, the blog believes benzene is a good leading indicator for chemical demand, due to its widespread use in the industry. Last November saw its price “on the floor“, indicating a major downturn, and it remained there until March, before its price began to “surge” in early April as destocking ended […]
The blog’s favourite financial journalist, Gillian Tett, has written an excellent article summarising the similarities between today’s problems in the western banking system, and those of Japan’s during the ‘lost decade’ of the 1990′s. Her point is that although central banks are pouring money into the system via ‘quantitative easing’, it is clearly not reaching […]
As the downturn began In July 2007, leading retailers Tesco and Wal-Mart “signalled a major shift in consumer priorities“. And Tesco added a warning that “If you don’t have the basic things right, you will be talking at the edge rather than at the centre“. 2 years later Procter & Gamble, one of the world’s […]
Sales of most chemicals are down due to the recession. But US sodium silicate volumes could see a massive boost, according to the Wall Street Journal. The reason is that the government has mandated its use to destroy the engines of the old cars that it buys under the subsidy scheme. Normally ‘liquid glass’, as […]
Merrill Lynch’s Bob Farrell was the doyen of sentiment analysts. He famously suggested that ‘bear markets have three stages – sharp down, reflexive rebound, a drawn-out fundamental downtrend’. So far we have certainly seen the ‘sharp down’ period, and the blog’s new Boom/Gloom Index© seems to have signalled the current ‘reflexive rebound‘, with July’s Index […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.