What happens to your business, or your investments, if demand fails to return to the supply-driven Comfortable Middle Scenario forecast by consensus thinking? This is the question raised in our new Study, Demand – the New Direction for Profit (jointly produced by International eChem and ICIS). We suggest that access to a low-cost position on […]
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Credit conditions are tightening day by day in China. Companies with good payment records over many years are seeing their borrowing limits cut back. 2016 is indeed proving to be the year that President Xi Jinping “takes the pain of restructuring”. At the same time, self-sufficiency has become a key strategy for many industries, in […]
China’s slowdown is continuing to reverberate around the world. One way of measuring this is to look at auto sales in countries closely linked to China’s market such as Japan, Russia and Brazil. As the chart shows, they did well during China’s stimulus period, but they are struggling now. By comparison, more self-sufficient India has […]
We all now carry around a mini-computer in our pockets – one with more power than those which controlled Apollo 11 when Neil Amstrong first walked on the moon in 1969. In certain parts of the world, there are now more smartphones than toilets, according to Time magazine. This is raising the spectre of market […]
Tens of billions of dollars have been spent over the past 6 years to produce the above chart. And thousands of people have argued and debated around the world about what will happen to China’s polyethylene (PE) market. It has been a key focus of attention for everyone in the petchem and polymer industry since […]
You never meet a shy and retiring car salesman. They are always bursting with confidence, about to sell you a tremendous deal. So we have to expect that the companies are always going to be confident about the future – even when it looks unpromising to everyone else. 2008 is close enough, that we can […]
Cotton has been on a roller-coaster ride over the past decade – to record high prices and then partial collapse. This was followed by China’s decision to build the world’s largest ever cotton inventory as part of its post-2009 stimulus programme, to protect cotton farmers. This inventory, being off the market, means cotton has been […]
Where would the global auto industry be without the Chinese market? Without China, sales in the other Top 6 markets stalled last year, and were down 100k. And what will happen now China’s economy is slowing, and it is also starting to develop a large used car market for the first time? Buyers will then […]
Plastics consumption in US autos is going down, not up. Steelmakers and glass manufacturers have recaptured ground lost in the years to 2009, and are capturing new sales as auto standards demand lighter-weight cars. And yet, if you had asked polymer suppliers about future demand in the US auto market a few years ago, they […]
Wishful thinking can have a very bad impact on company and investor profits. Look, for example, at the problems caused by the belief that China’s population had suddenly become middle class, based on average incomes of $2-$20/day. Now it seems the same process of mythologising is underway with India, with ratings agency S&P suggesting yesterday that: “India […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.