Archive | Consumer demand RSS feed for this section

Top 10.jpg

Top 10 posts in 2009

Blog readers have a wide range of interests. That is clear from the list below of the Top 10 posts in 2009. It also confirms the complexity of the chemical industry, and its fascination. In alphabetical order, it is as follows: • Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble • Companies remain cautious on the outlook • […]

Continue Reading
autos Jan10.JPG

US auto sales in 2009 at 1982 level

US auto sales last year at 10.4 million were the worst since 1982. Even this figure was slightly artificial, due to the support provided by the $3bn ‘cash for clunkers’ programme in the summer. This impact can be seen in the chart, with total volumes (black line) picking up again in December under the impact […]

Continue Reading
Index Jan10.JPG

Boom/Gloom Index remains cautious

The IeC Boom/Gloom Index remains cautious as we enter the New Year. Meant to track sentiment in financial markets, it shows clearly that talk of ‘green shoots’ (green line) leading to a quick recovery has virtually stopped. Whilst the reading for ‘frugal’ (red line) steadied, as we went into the Christmas period. The Index itself […]

Continue Reading
CSFs Jan10.JPG

The 2010 Outlook

Extended downturns, of the type that we are now suffering, generally mark a transition period from one set of business conditions to another. I look at what might be in store for us during this transition, in this week’s edition of ICIS Chemical Business. The analysis focuses on the key areas in the chart – […]

Continue Reading
lightbulb.jpg

Opportunities for the New Decade

Over the past century, many parts of the world have seen an extraordinary increase in living standards and life expectancy. As the Financial Times notes, we used to marry at c15 years, become grandparents at c30 and die at c45. Yet whilst 15 – 30 – 45 is still the demographic cycle in the poorest […]

Continue Reading
China polymers Dec09.JPG

China’s stimulus boosts PE, PP, domestic recycling

China’s bank lending has rocketed this year, as the government attempts to maintain employment in the face of a major collapse in vital export volume. New figures show it had reached $1.35bn by the end of November. By comparison, lending in the whole of 2007 was just $0.5bn. As the Wall Street Journal notes, this […]

Continue Reading
Blog Dec09.JPG

The blog in 2009

The blog is now 2.5 years old. Readership continues to grow, both within the chemical industry and its investment community. It is now read in 121 countries, and 2735 cities, versus 89 countries and 1244 cities a year ago. Readers are also very loyal, with 23% reading it twice a week. Its readership covers all […]

Continue Reading
Oil stocks Dec09.JPG

Saudi says oil at $70 – $80/bbl is a “perfect price”

OPEC’s Angola meeting lasted just 70 minutes yesterday. Before the session, Saudi Oil Minister al-Naimi noted that prices were at their target level of $70-$80/bbl, and called this “a perfect price”. However, the underlying supply/demand balance remains fragile. As the chart from Nomura shows, current OECD oil/product inventories are well above normal levels. Whilst today’s […]

Continue Reading
McDonald P&G.jpg

P&G warn on global protectionism

P&G’s new CEO, Robert McDonald, has “warned of the risks to global growth posed by increased protectionism in the US and around the world, stemming from the global recession“. interviewed by the Financial Times, McDonald noted that 20% of P&G’s jobs in the US depend on their international business, which accounts for 60% of P&G’s […]

Continue Reading
Feldstein.JPG

Feldstein says US recession “isn’t over”

Harvard’s Prof Martin Feldstein is one of the very few economists who has correctly forecast the length of the current downturn. Today, he questions whether the US recession is really over, and suggests that “2010 is going to be a very weak year“. He believes that we are entering a more frugal economy, and notes […]

Continue Reading