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US fracking demand creates price volatility for hydrochloric acid

Fracking has completely changed the outlook for US natural gas supplies, as the above chart from the latest Energy Information Agency 2014 annual report shows: It forecasts a 56% increase in total natural gas production from 2012 to 2040 This is largely due to growth in shale gas (green) and tight gas (brown) Shale gas output […]

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Modi highlights toilets in India’s Independence Day speech

The Indian Prime Minister’s address on Independence Day is the major event of the political year, equal to the US President’s ‘State of the Union’ speech.  It was particularly important this year as India has a new reforming prime minister in Narendra Modi. It it is thus hugely significant that top of his agenda was opening up the country […]

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The Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus has begun

Large economies are like supertankers.  There are no brakes to use if you want to change direction in a hurry.  Instead, you have to put the engine into reverse, and hope you can slow down fast enough to avoid the rocks. That is what happened in China last month, as the new leadership began to […]

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Deflation Jul13

India’s WTO veto marks end of global trade deals

The Cycle of Deflation has taken another lurch forward.  The reason was India’s decision to veto last year’s Bali deal to streamline customs procedures.  Almost certainly, this will prove the dying effort of the World Trade Organisation, which sponsored the proposal. The blog is particularly sad at this outcome.  It has always believed that free […]

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China’s housing market enters New Normal as prices slide

Markets appear to be continuing to move, slowly but surely, into their expected ‘scary phase’.  The reason is the massive distortions that have been created in financial markets, and in China’s housing market, by the $35tn+ of stimulus from governments and central banks since 2009. Unwinding these distortions will not be simple.  The stimulus has not returned us […]

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Dow right

Dow’s CEO says “pre-2008 economy was a bubble”

Now its official.  Andrew Liveris, Dow CEO, told CNBC last week that the “pre-2008 economy was a bubble“.  And exactly mirroring the analysis of Boom, Gloom and the New Normal, he went on to add that “for a couple of years after 2008, we had a head-fake that the growth might have returned, but it […]

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India’s $10bn polymer opportunity in toilet provision

There is never a shortage of growth opportunities.  But too often companies choose not to access them.  Hopefully that won’t happen with the opportunity to supply millions of tonnes of polymer to meet India’s desperate need for toilets. As the blog wrote recently, 600 million Indians currently defecate in fields – as shown above in the photo – […]

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Deflation Dec13

An oil price fall would tip the world into deflation

The blog found it hard to believe, when it started to research for Boom, Gloom and the New Normal, how little information existed on basic facts such as population size and annual births.  Some countries such as the UK and Japan have data going back a century.  But they are the exceptions: US annual data […]

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55 plus – a new market

The blog’s analysis about the inevitability of slowing demand and deflation was warmly received at Euromoney’s latest Global Bond Investors’ Congress.   Far fewer of this year’s attendees still believed that central banks could return the Western economy to SuperCycle growth levels. Thus its concept of the 3 Normals received a most enthusiastic response. This week has seen even greater interest develop […]

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Do you know where your polyethylene is in China?

In the late 1970s and early 1980s, New York Mayor Ed Koch fronted a series of public service TV commercials asking parents: “Its 10pm.  Do you know where your children are?” The blog was reminded of this when checking China’s polyethylene (PE) import data on Global Trade Information Services for the January – May period, as shown […]

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