Its now 3 months since we first saw the impact of the subprime crisis. At that time, the main impact was on poor Americans, who were losing their homes. Then, in August, banks stopped lending to each other, causing credit conditions to tighten. By September, central banks were fighting fires on several fronts: • Injecting […]
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It seems likely that this week’s European Petrochemical Association annual meeting in Berlin will mark a turning point in the petchem cycle. Looking back over 2007, Boy Litjens, CEO of Sabic Europe, told ICIS@EPCA that performance this year had been ‘excellent’, and that they would ‘definitely report the best results ever’. He was also hopeful […]
Dow CEO Andrew Liveris has spelled out very clearly his concerns about the impact of the US subprime crisis and high energy prices. He said that last week’s Fed Funds cut ‘flirted with danger’ in terms of the risks it took with inflation, although it was clearly necessary in order to tackle other problem areas. […]
A week ago, I wrote that it would be important to see if ‘the US Federal Reserve can pull a rabbit out of its hat’ at its meeting later that day. The dust has now settled on its 0.5% Fed Funds rate cut, and one can see that short term liquidity has certainly been improved, […]
Shell and Saudi Aramco have now confirmed plans to spend $7bn to build what they term ‘the first new refinery in the U.S. in more than 30 years’. They will achieve this by adding 325,000 barrels per day (b/d) to their existing Port Arthur, Texas, facility, taking total capacity to 600,000 b/d. It is scheduled […]
Well, now we know. Interviewed by the Financial Times on Monday, Alan Greenspan rejected the widely-held belief that central banks are now independent. Throwing aside his normal caution, the former US Federal Reserve Chairman said quite bluntly that ‘the presumption that we were fully independent and have full discretion was false’. This is a worrying […]
Extraordinary events have taken place in the UK since my posting on Friday: • A bankrun took place on the 8th largest bank, Northern Rock, with lines of depositors queuing for hours outside its branches all over the weekend and Monday. • Faced with this, the UK Finance Minister was forced to announce that the […]
When the US subprime crisis began, we were assured by the ‘experts’ that it was only a small problem, involving a minor segment of an otherwise robust market. However, the more one read about the situation, the more untenable this view seemed to be. Equally, we were told by other ‘experts’ that there was no […]
OPEC are sounding a note of concern about the impact of high oil prices on the world economy. Hasan Qabazar, OPEC’s chief economist said yesterday ‘We are trying, hopefully, to reduce high oil prices, to have prices that are more conducive to economic development’. Qabazar also emphasised OPEC’s desire to help counter any impact from […]
One of the benefits of writing this blog is that it provides the opportunity to research behind the headlines, and better understand what is really happening. Friday’s US payrolls report, which showed the first loss of US jobs for 4 years, is a classic example. Nobody in the chemical industry should have been too surprised […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.