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Nikkei v Shang Feb16

Tokyo, Shanghai stock markets fall; yen rises 8% in 2 weeks

Pity poor Janet Yellen, you might say.  The head of the US Federal Reserve told the Senate last week that she had been “quite surprised” by the collapse of oil prices since mid-2014.  And she added that the rise of the US$ was similarly “not something that we had expected” (you can see the testimony […]

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The World’s Economy Soared Last Year (or Plunged)

  ECONOMIC TRENDS    Danny Hakim @dannyhakim FEB. 8, 2016 “LONDON — Did global output rise or fall last year?” That’s the critical question asked by the New York Times today. It follows my recent blog post, suggesting we shouldn’t ignore the fact that IMF data shows a record $3.8tn fall in global GDP last year, when […]

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2015 operating rates confirm chemical industry slowdown

Financial markets are becoming more and more chaotic, with prices regularly moving by 1% per cent or more in a day.  Prices have also started to suffer sharp reverses of direction within a day, as talk of new stimulus competes with the reality of mounting supply gluts.  These developments are classic red flags, warning of […]

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China’s lending bubble is being deflated

The changes underway in China’s lending policies are far more significant that anything being planned by central banks in Tokyo, Frankfurt or Washington as I describe in my latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog Investors’ attention remains focused on the minutiae of central bank policies in the developed world. But they might spare a […]

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Common sense continues to elude central banks as they battle demographic cliff

Central banks are in a losing battle, as they try to reverse the inevitable slowdown created by the arrival of the demographic cliff.  Last year’s 5% fall in global GDP in current dollars tells its own story. Common sense would tell them they can’t possibly win.  After all, how do you persuade New Olders in […]

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New Old 1950- Oct15a

Global GDP sees record fall in 2015 as world hits “demographic cliff”

Central bankers remain in Denial about the failure of their stimulus policies.  Yet new IMF data for global GDP shows GDP fell by $3.8tn in 2015 – the biggest fall on record – as the world hits the “demographic cliff”.  We have now seen 2 record falls in 6 years, as the previous record was $3.3tn […]

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Ring of fire Feb15

“World faces wave of epic debt defaults” – central bank veteran

Only one central banker spotted the subprime crisis before it occurred – William White.  Now he is warning that the world will have to revive the Old Testament concept of “debt jubilees“, with much of today’s debt being written off: “Debts have continued to build up over the last eight years and they have reached such […]

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Expect $25 – $30/bbl oil and lower chemical prices in 2016

More than $2.3tn was wiped off the value of global stocks last week as China’s slowing economy and currency depreciations spooked investors around the world, leading to the worst start to a year for markets in at least two decades.  This is the Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus in action. Worse is likely to come. […]

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Financial markets feel impact of the Great Unwinding

Its not been a great start to the year for those who have trusted in conventional wisdom: Western stock markets have been reeling, with the US S&P 500 Index down sharply since Monday It has been the worst opening for world stock markets since 2008 – not a good year for investors China’s currency has […]

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Great Unwinding sees oil fall 65%; US$ rise 22%; US 10-year rates rise 25%

The Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus was the major issue in financial markets in 2015.  And it is set to have even greater impact in 2016 once Phase 3 begins.  The chart above highlights the astonishing changes that have taken place since the Unwinding began in mid-August 2014; Phase 1 has so far seen Brent […]

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