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Great Unwinding leads to major chemical market downturn

It is now almost 3 months since I suggested the Great Unwinding was about to hit oil and chemical markets.  As the chart above shows, there has since been a major collapse in most of the markets in our benchmark portfolio.  Given their role as leading indicators for the global economy, this major downturn is extremely worrying: […]

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Budgeting for the Cycle of Deflation

There is no “business as usual” scenario possible for the 2015-2017 Budget period.  Over the past 15 years (since the ”dotcom bubble” burst in 2000), policymakers have provided increasing amounts of stimulus to support the economy.  Now, finally, we are in the endgame, as the Great Unwinding takes place. This presents us all with major challenges: Most executives and investors under […]

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Denmark, and the West, wake up to a lack of babies

“We have for many years addressed the very important issues of how to avoid becoming pregnant, how to avoid sexual diseases, how kids have a right to their own bodies, but we totally forgot to tell them we cannot have children forever.” Suddenly, and it does seem to be a sudden realisation, Western countries are beginning to […]

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China becomes major PVC, PTA exporter for first time in history

Be very careful what you wish for.  That is the key message coming out of close analysis of China’s latest trade data. Recent media reports were upbeat at news that China’s exports had increased, as it appeared to suggest Western demand was returning.  But it seems nothing could be further from the truth. One major concern is that part […]

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“BASF slashes 2015 targets on slowing global growth”

“BASF, the world’s biggest chemical maker by sales, has slashed its revenue and earnings targets for 2015, following a further weakening of the European economy and a slowdown in China.” Saturday’s Financial Times headline said it all.  BASF’s statement adds to the growing evidence of a major slowdown taking place in the global economy, and highlights how […]

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The Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus is under way

The blog’s latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog is below.Oct 20, 2014 10:48am By Paul Hodges of International eChem Two months ago, very few people believed that markets were about to tumble. But on 18 August we published our Great Unwinding analysis. Since then, its forecasts have begun to come true, […]

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Great Unwinding sees prices tumble

World markets have seen major falls since the Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus began 2 months ago. Naturally, chemical markets have taken some of the biggest hits, given the industry’s role as a leading indicator for the global economy.  From today, the blog is therefore updating its regular chart (above) to focus on this impact: The biggest loser has been PTA in […]

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Oil prices have further to fall as Great Unwinding continues

Oil prices are highly likely to fall further, not rebound, over the next few months.  That is the blog’s conclusion to its 3-part analysis of likely developments in oil markets. Having looked at the outlook for oil supply and demand over the past 2 days, today’s post looks at the key question of ‘what does this mean for oil […]

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“You’d have to be crazy to think the stock market isn’t crazy”

The headline above was the Wall Street Journal’s summary of last week’s market action.  But was it really “crazy”? Perhaps it just felt “crazy” to those who had wanted to believe central banks’ stimulus policies could somehow restore growth to previous SuperCycle levels? Maybe instead, last week was just the early stages of the Great Unwinding of these failed policies?  Certainly […]

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Chemical markets highlight economic downturn now underway

The chemical industry remains the best leading indicator for the global economy.  The only problem is that most policymakers continue to ignore its obvious message about the failure of their stimulus policies to restore growth. 2 months ago the blog highlighted how its IeC Downturn Monitor was indicating that: “Markets appear to be continuing to move, slowly but […]

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