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The great ‘Deflation Shock’ is coming closer

  The world is about to be hit by a demand shock equivalent to 1973′s supply shock.  Yet, astonishingly, most commentators remain so focused on central bank activity, that they have completely missed what is happening.  Here’s how it is playing out. You may remember the ‘The pH Report‘ forecast in early December that: “Oil prices […]

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US economic recovery at risk as energy bubble bursts

The bursting of the US energy bubble is looking more and more like a replay of the sub-prime bubble in 2008. As investor Warren Buffett has noted, “its only when the tide goes out, that you learn who has been swimming naked .”  And nearly a year ago, former central banker William White warned the problems in the global economy were: “Worse […]

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“Houston, we have a problem!”

Suddenly, far too late, the world is catching up with reality.  Goldman Sachs and others yesterday halved their forecast for Brent oil to $42/bbl from $80/bbl.  But this isn’t forecasting, this is simply catching up with events long after they happened.  Brent, after all, opened at $45/bbl this morning. As readers will remember, I forecast back in August […]

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Stock markets focus on central banks, ignore debt default risk

Some extraordinary things are happening in global chemical markets.  They indicate something is very wrong in the real world outside financial markets.  The chart above highlights some key developments since 18 August when the Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus began: Brent oil prices have halved and are down 51% (blue) Naphtha, the main feedstock for the global industry, has also halved […]

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US jobs growth at risk with end of the shale gas advantage

US job markets have been very difficult since the Crisis began in 2008.  In the past, it has typically taken 30 months for employment levels to return to their previous peak.  But this time, it took until last September for the US to finally recapture the 139 million jobs peak of November 2007. The trend in the […]

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Oil prices at $50/bbl, China slowdown – the New Normal arrives

Welcome to the New Normal. The Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus has led global oil prices to drop back to $50/bbl.  Meanwhile China, the major source of demand growth since 2009, is now seeing a major slowdown. And, of course, this is still only the beginning of the great transformation that is now underway as we enter […]

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Rocky road ahead for global economy as chemical industry remains downbeat

The chemical industry continues to be the best leading indicator that we have for the global economy.  This is because it is not only the 3rd largest industry (after agriculture and energy), but also because it is truly global and impacts virtually all areas of modern-day life. The chart above therefore presents a very downbeat […]

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Oil price fall creates major inventory risk for chemical markets

Oil prices have now fallen $50/bbl since I forecast their collapse in August.  But it is only recently that companies and investors have begun to realise this price fall is real, and not just a minor blip.  As a result, few have yet recognised the extent of the collateral damage that is likely to appear in […]

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G7 births in 2013 equal Great Depression year of 1933

In 2013, there were fewer births in the G7 countries – responsible for nearly 50% of the global economy – than in any year since the Great Depression year of 1933.* As the chart also shows, 1933 was an exception.  Births bounced back immediately afterwards.  But the low figure in 2013 is part of the declining trend seen since […]

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Default or debt forgiveness the options in Greek elections

“Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough”.  That was the statement by European Central Bank head Mario Draghi in July 2012, where he aimed to draw a line under the Eurozone debt crisis. Yet here we are in December 2014, […]

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