Archive | Economic growth RSS feed for this section

UK risks “crashing out” of EU after election without trade deal

Yesterday, senior EU negotiators warned that “the chances of Britain crashing out of the EU without a new (trade) deal were now “over 50%””.  Clearly, therefore, the UK’s preparations are not going well. Instead of building trust, the UK’s Brexit Secretary, David Davis, seems to think that threats – such as promising “the row of […]

Continue Reading

London house prices face perfect storm as Brexit risks rise

The UK goes to the polls on 8 June in a surprise General Election.  And premier Theresa May has clearly decided to base her campaign on a “Who governs Britain?” platform, as she highlighted when launching her campaign last week: “Britain’s negotiating position in Europe has been misrepresented in the continental press, the European Commission’s stance […]

Continue Reading

Debt, demographics set to destroy Trump’s GDP growth dream

Unsurprisingly, Friday’s US GDP report showed Q1 growth was just 0.7%, as the New York Times reported: “The U.S. economy turned in the weakest performance in three years in the January-March quarter as consumers sharply slowed their spending. The result fell far short of President Donald Trump’s ambitious growth targets and underscores the challenges of […]

Continue Reading

Ageing boomers are no longer spending

The Financial Times has kindly printed my letter below, suggesting that President Trump’s focus on tax cuts is misplaced, given the headwinds created for spending and economic growth by today’s ageing US BabyBoomers. Sir, Gillian Tett provides an excellent analysis of the wishful thinking that seems to dominate US economic policy today (“Trump tested as […]

Continue Reading

Half of India’s youth prioritise religion over science, and believe women should always listen to their husbands

Mention India to many CEOs and investors, and they will smile broadly at the thought of its “demographic dividend”. Two-thirds of India’s population are under-35,and are already swelling the numbers of those in the critical Wealth Creator 25 – 54 age group which drives economic growth. As the chart shows:    India’s median age […]

Continue Reading

Trump, Xi have 100 days to avert US-China trade war

Last week’s summit meeting between US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping was initially overshadowed by Friday’s news of US missile strikes on Syria.  But from the details since released, it is clear the summit will likely have far-reaching impact on the global economy.  As US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross revealed afterwards, the […]

Continue Reading

US GDP growth stalls with participation rates near all-time low

US GDP growth is slowing, again, as the chart of the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s “GDP Now” forecast shows:    Forecast Q1 growth has slipped to just 0.6% from an initial 3.4% at the end of January    Consensus economic forecasts are still much higher, but even they have fallen to 1.7% from 2.2% […]

Continue Reading

Brexit letter means end of “business as usual” for the UK

The UK economy set off into the Great Unknown on Wednesday, when premier Theresa May officially notified the European Union of the UK’s intention to leave (Brexit) by the end of March 2019.  In response, the EU released its draft guidelines for the negotiations:    “The first phase of the negotiations should aim to […]

Continue Reading
Healthcare Mar17

Trump’s $1tn infrastructure plan likely dead as focus moves to tax

President Trump’s defeat on healthcare makes it very unlikely that he will be able to push through his proposed $1tn infrastructure boost, as I discuss in a video interview with Will Beacham, deputy editor of ICIS Chemical Business BARCELONA (ICIS)–Donald Trump’s infrastructure plan is unlikely to be approved because of a legislative bottleneck, denying the US chemical […]

Continue Reading

Trump’s healthcare focus risks postponement of tax reform and the infrastructure boost

President Trump ran for office on the basis that he would “drain the swamp” in Washington, and deliver major change in a number of critical areas, as I noted immediately after his election on 14 November.  Sensibly, his “Contract with America” also recognised that his Top 10 legislative priorities would take time to deliver: “I […]

Continue Reading