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US 10-year interest rates jump 23% as Fed debates 0.25% hike

Media hype over the potential for a 0.25% interest rate rise by the US Federal Reserve is well underway.  But as often happens these days, this is missing the bigger picture. The issue is simple: developments in China are far more important to the global economy than anything the Fed might, or might not, do […]

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China’s total lending declines as shadow sector squeezed

Go, go, go, said the bird: human kind Cannot bear very much reality. Time past and time future What might have been and what has been Point to one end, which is always present These lines from the great poet TS Eliot seem to sum up current thinking towards China.  Analysts compete with themselves to […]

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Coppock, Farrell indicators suggest financial market downturn underway

They don’t ring bells to warn of financial market tops and bottoms.  But there are 2 very good substitutes in terms of the Farrell and Coppock Indicators, as the above chart for the UK stock market since 1973 shows: It is based on the Financial Times All-share Index (FTA), as the FTSE 100 only began […]

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Financial markets head towards chaos as Great Unwinding continues

Financial markets are slowly descending into chaos.  The process began in China over the summer, and has now started to impact Wall Street and other developed markets as the Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus continues. The problem is that successful investment, whether in financial or chemical markets, requires the combination of A clear understanding of […]

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Markets need more cash from the Janet Yellen tooth fairy

Central banks have acted as the proverbial tooth fairy towards financial markets in recent years.  But they have not just left a small amount of money under the pillow when a child lost its first tooth.  Instead they have printed trillions of dollars via Quantitative Easing (QE), to persuade investors to buy shares and commodities, […]

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NYSE margin Aug15

Stock market volatility surges as margin debt hits danger level

Global stock markets turned in a vintage experience last week for those who like horror movies. Continued sell-offs in China finally convinced some financial investors, and some senior Western policymakers, that its economy might not be quite as strong as they had assumed.  The ensuing panic led to record profits for the high frequency traders (HFTs), as the Dow Jones […]

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Contagion hits financial markets as Great Unwinding continues

Crude oil prices continued to fall towards $30/bbl last week.  Markets are finally starting to recognise, as the BBC reported last year, that ‘China fooled the world‘ with its stimulus programme. It had not suddenly become middle-class by Western standards in 2009.  Instead, aided by developed country stimulus policies, its own stimulus had helped create […]

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Greece introduces capital controls; IMF says it needs to default

This morning, Greece introduced capital controls.  People can only withdraw €60/day ($65) from their bank accounts.  The government has also called a referendum on Sunday, after Eurozone talks on a new bailout package collapsed. The key issue is that Greece will never be able to repay its debts.  These are currently estimated at €322bn ($365bn) […]

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Fed’s loss of credibility risks causing investor stampede

Credibility is hard to gain.  And once gone, it is very hard to regain.  That is the challenge facing the US Federal Reserve today.  The New York Times is just one of the mainstream media now starting to highlight the issue, as last week’s Fed meeting led to a further deferral of the promised rise […]

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German markets stumble as “Sell in May” theme continues

My 4 May post was titled “‘Sell in May and go away?’ as US, German bond yields jump“.  Since then, US interest rates have continued to soar and the US stock market is starting to wobble, as I discussed last week.  Now emerging markets are in the line of fire.  $9.3bn was withdrawn last week – […]

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