A recent Financial Times article commented on the 93% correlation this year between changes in the ¥ / € rate and global stock market movements. It showed that during 2007, whenever the euro has risen against the yen, stocks have also risen, and vice versa. This could be interesting background info for anyone who dabbles […]
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The consensus viewpoint is an easy way of keeping up to speed on a variety of issues outside one’s daily experience. But the signs are that the consensus may be leading to complacency, when it comes to the assumptions being used to finalise 2008 budgets. There are a number of areas where some new thinking […]
Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, spent his trip to Singapore yesterday expressing concern over the fall in the US$. ‘“We have never been experiencing such big pressure. We are worried about how to preserve the value of our reserves,’ he said. In a separate interview, Mr Wen then went further, stating ‘We will increase the […]
Our annual European conference, organised with ICIS, always provides an excellent opportunity to gain a snapshot of industry views as we move into a new year. At this week’s event in Antwerp, Belgium, the prevailing mood was uncertainty, for the first time since 2002: • Oil prices are high, and volatile. This makes it difficult […]
Christophe de Margerie, the new TOTAL CEO, has burst the bubble of complacency that has surrounded discussion of future oil supply. The ‘business as usual’ forecasts of both the International Energy Agency and the US government assume that the world will be producing c120m bbls/day by 2030. But de Margerie said he wished to ‘speak […]
Gisele Bundchen, the world’s richest supermodel, has joined the list of those who refuse to be paid in US dollars. As a Brazilian, she has had plenty of experience to help her recognise a depreciating currency. According to Bloomberg, she even insisted that a recent contract with US-based Proctor and Gamble for ‘Pantene’ hair products […]
The Bank of England correctly predicted in April this year that the risks associated with US subprime lending had increased, that credit risk monitoring was poor, and that markets should be prepared for liquidity to dry up in parts of the financial sector. It must therefore, as the Financial Times said, ‘have required some restraint […]
The price of a product is a key factor in determining the profitability of producing and using it. And a transparent pricing structure encourages liquidity, which enables price discovery to take place more easily between buyers and sellers. This is why I have long been a supporter of the London Metals Exchange (LME) initiative to […]
Well, now we know. Interviewed by the Financial Times on Monday, Alan Greenspan rejected the widely-held belief that central banks are now independent. Throwing aside his normal caution, the former US Federal Reserve Chairman said quite bluntly that ‘the presumption that we were fully independent and have full discretion was false’. This is a worrying […]
OPEC are sounding a note of concern about the impact of high oil prices on the world economy. Hasan Qabazar, OPEC’s chief economist said yesterday ‘We are trying, hopefully, to reduce high oil prices, to have prices that are more conducive to economic development’. Qabazar also emphasised OPEC’s desire to help counter any impact from […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.