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No news on Obama’s plans for Fannie and Freddie

Its nearly 18 months since the US government nationalised the 2 home loan giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, at the start of the September 2008 financial crisis. Today, their current obligations amount to $3.7trn – larger that the total UK economy. And the Wall Street Journal notes that their cumulative losses on home loans […]

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Boom/Gloom Index slips again

There has been no New Year recovery for the IeC Boom/Gloom Index. It (blue column) slipped again last month, and is now back at September’s level. A further fall in February would take it close to the levels seen before the dramatic rally in financial markets that began last March. Equally, the Green Shoots spotted […]

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Crude oil markets lose support

The oil market rally seems finally to be running out of steam. For months now, it has been driven by the ‘correlation trade’, whereby Wall Street traders sell the US$ and buy crude oil. But as the chart shows, the two lines have now begun to diverge. Fundamentals have clearly started to affect the €:$ […]

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Global chemical output returns to growth

The above chart, based on data from the excellent weekly American Chemistry Council report, highlights the changes in chemical production over the past year. November saw world production (black line) finally turn positive again versus the previous 12 months, for the first time since August 2008. For an industry used to steady growth in line […]

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EU consumers worry about the economic outlook

European consumers remain very wary about the future. The slide above, from the monthly CEFIC report, shows that fear of unemployment is THE major concern. Almost half the population, a net balance of 44.3%, worried about this in December (yellow column), only slightly fewer than in November (blue column). This concern creates a major headwind […]

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China cuts back lending to the USA

The US government used to depend on China to fund its deficit. In 2006, China bought 47.4% of all US bonds issued. But last year, as the chart from the NY Times shows, China bought just 4.6%, leaving US investors to buy the rest. This is a yet another indicator of the profound changes underway […]

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US housing starts at 25% of 2006 peak

US housing is still limping along the bottom. December’s housing starts were only 0.2% above 2008 levels. Overall, 2009 saw just 554k starts, the lowest level for 50 years, despite the support of the $8k tax credit. During the Boom period, as the ACC’s chart above shows, starts (blue line) peaked at a 2.2 million […]

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Volcker returns

Sometimes, a picture is worth 1000 words. That’s the case with this photo (used by most of the world’s major news media), showing President Obama with former US Fed Governor Paul Volcker by his side. Volcker’s re-emergence is the first real sign of a serious shift in policy towards the financial sector. And the blog […]

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Restocking not the same as Recovery

Will Beacham of ICIS interviewed me yesterday in London’s Trafalgar Square. Please click above if you would like to see the discussion. Or click here if you would like to see Will’s summary on ICIS news.

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Greece’s deficits threaten the eurozone

Greece’s problems are getting worse, not better. And there seems no obvious solution to them. Does this matter to the chemical industry? Yes. Greece may not be a major player in chemical markets. But it is a member of the eurozone. And so its financial difficulties could prove very disruptive for any company that trades […]

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