Current market conditions are causing problems for everyone in the chemical industry. But as the blog has long feared, they are particularly testing those companies with higher debt levels. On Friday, Moody’s announced a downgrading of the Corporate Family Rating of Lyondell Basell Industries to B3 to B1, and said the outlook “remains negative”. Yesterday, […]
The first-ever G-20 meeting of Heads of State was a relatively quiet event, without the presence of President-elect Obama. Two main areas seem to have been discussed: • Regulatory reform, where finance ministers have been given until the end of March to work out new rules for the world’s financial markets • Fiscal stimulus, where […]
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is the global energy watchdog. Its new annual report, just published, says “the world’s energy system is at a crossroads”, and adds that “current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable”. As examples, it highlights: • The world will need 45 mb/d of new capacity (4 times […]
Andrew Liveris, Dow CEO, has consistently warned that we are facing a major recession. Today, in a Bloomberg interview, he spells out the need for “radical actions” to “take out capacity”. He notes that Dow’s volumes are down 10%-20% this quarter, and expects this to continue into H1 next year. And he forecasts that “we […]
The Financial Times series on surviving the downturn focuses this week on CFOs. It includes advice from Feike Sijbesma, CEO of DSM, who suggests that “you need to see how creditable your debtors are, very quickly”, and advises that “maintaining a good relationship with your creditors and banks is also critical”. The Key Tips from […]
I gave an interview to ICIS radio at EPCA in September, in which I warned that the destocking process would go through two phases: • The first, which took place during Q3, was when companies destocked in response to the falling oil price, to a more “normal” level of stock • The second, which would […]
The UK’s Finance Minister said today that interest rates might need to be cut “to an unprecedented zero”. And the Bank of England warned there is a real “risk of persistent and damaging falls in prices”. Deflation would be a major challenge for chemical companies, for two main reasons: • Demand is deferred, because prices […]
A few months ago, Russia’s economy seemed to be recovering from its problems in the late 1990′s. High prices meant oil revenues were increasing, and the currency was strong. Now, the combination of the oil price collapse and the credit crunch has reversed the position. Yesterday, the central bank was forced to raise rates to […]
The blog’s forecasting record is reviewed in ICIS Chemical Business this week. Click here if you would like a copy. The blog’s aim is to “highlight relevant information for the busy executive, and to provide relevant and actionable analysis of key issues”. The article particularly notes the blog’s willingness to challenge consensus forecasts. The blog […]
2 months ago the blog raised 5 key questions about the $700bn US bailout. Yesterday’s news about additional government funding for insurance giant AIG confirms its concerns. Originally, the US Treasury had insisted it would only support “healthy” firms. Now, this fiction has been abandoned. After AIG announced its 4th straight quarterly loss ($24.5bn), its […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.