Back in May, the blog suggested that “Chrysler’s bankruptcy marks a ‘tipping point’, when the first major company is finally forced to adjust to a permanently lower level of demand.” Now comes news that Toyota is to follow Chrysler’s lead, and will cut production on a global basis Toyota produced 9.24m autos last year, but […]
The blog was asked to write an analysis for ICIS Insight on the growing concerns about the outlook for China’s economy, and their potential impact on the global chemicals inustry. Please click here if you would like to download a pdf copy.
The US housing crisis is still getting worse, causing the weekend collapse of Guaranty Bank, the 11th largest US bank failure. As the Wall Street Journal notes, this marks a “new stage” in the banking crisis. Guaranty Financial had bought low quality, “toxic” mortgage loans, and its woes illustrate the “boomerang effect” that is now […]
The blog is very interested to see the different outlooks being proposed by central bank heads. US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke claimed Friday that the financial crisis was due to “panic”, rather than fundamental problems such as reckless lending. As a result, with the “panic” over, he now saw the potential for securing “a sustained […]
Many western governments have not seen manufacturing as a major priority in recent years. Instead, they have favoured moves to boost services, particularly the financial sector. US manufacturing employment, for example, has fallen from 19.6m in 1979 to just 11.8m today – the lowest level since 1941. Over the same period, China has taken the […]
Some 20 years ago, the blog launched ICI Watercare – which became the largest water treatment business in the chemical industry. So it has kept a close eye on opportunities in the water industry ever since. The weak monsoon season in India highlights one such opportunity. As a new report from the UN Food and […]
Monsoon rainfall accounts for 60% of farm irrigation in India, Asia’s 3rd largest economy. This monsoon season, it has so far been about 2/3rds of the 10 year average. Last week it was 56% below normal. Although agriculture accounts for just 17% of the economy, the lack of rainfall will also damage the whole rural […]
Henry Mintzberg is one of the blog’s favourite management gurus. The reason is that he understands the constraints under which most managers operate. His view is that the best managers aren’t Superman or Superwoman, but “are simply ordinary, healthy people who aren’t too screwed up“. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, he outlines […]
Companies normally have 3 ways of pleasing investors: • Meet or better expectations for revenue and earnings • Cut costs to meet earnings if revenues disappoint • Focus attention on a more favourable earnings definition When things are going well, the first option is preferred. But under the pressure of a sustained economic downturn, it […]
Interesting new research from Prof Nouriel Roubini provides some perspective on relative levels of consumer spending around the world: • US private consumption accounted for 16% of total global output in 2008 • It was valued at $10trn, just ahead of European consumption at $9trn • Total Asian consumption was under $5trn • China’s consumption […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such as oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.