In October 2008, the blog featured the US Treasury official responsible for running the $700bn TARP rescue fund. He was 35 years old, and just 6 years out of business school. Apparently there was nobody available with more experience to take on the role of “choosing which US financial institutions live, and which die“, during […]
Chemicals and the Economy
INEOS plans refining/technology JVs with PetroChina
The Falkirk Herald, INEOS’s local newspaper in Scotland, has had to wait a long time for its ‘scoop’ of June 2009 to be confirmed. It had reported then that INEOS was in talks with PetroChina about the future of the Grangemouth refinery. As PetroChina noted at the time, “downstream business has a poor margin nowadays […]
Unemployment hits US auto sales in 2010
As the chart shows, December’s US auto sales (orange line) were the highest monthly level since August 2009’s ‘cash for clunkers’. But it was only achieved via a massive 7% jump in purchase incentives, which were back at Q2 2009 levels of $2700/vehicle. And 2010 was still the second worst year for sales since 1982, […]
Shared Value can unleash next wave of global growth
GE’s then CEO, Jack Welch, launched the Shareholder Value concept in 1981. It has since led many investors to adopt a purely short-term focus on financial metrics, rather than longer-term opportunities. The only problem is that, as Welch admitted 2 years ago, it was “a dumb idea“. Now, one of the world’s great management thinkers, […]
“Rising oil prices threaten economic recovery”, IEA
The blog has gained important support for its view that oil prices are too high. and threaten the current economic recovery. In an interview with the Financial Times, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, has spelled out its view that “oil prices are entering a dangerous zone for the global […]
New White Paper now available
We face more uncertainty today than I have ever seen over the past 30 years. Will last year’s strong performance in terms of profit continue? Or will higher oil prices ruin the party? Might China’s demand slow, as the government there worries about rising inflation? How will European demand be impacted as governments switch from […]
Force majeures reduce to 2007 level
The above chart is very welcome news at the start of 2011. It updates the blog’s posting in July, which highlighted the dramatic increase in mentions of force majeures in ICIS news during H1. This linked to increasing concerns about availability issues amongst consumers. The fear was that maintenance spend on plant and equipment might […]
China’s gasoline at record highs, EU’s close to peak
Crude oil prices have been rocketing lately. In turn, they have produced the seemingly ‘strong’ year-end for the chemical industry forecast by the blog in early November. At this point, there is a clear divergence of view. The blog’s bullish friends see this as a sign of a major recovery in demand, and confidently forecast […]
Planning for Uncertainty
The blog’s New Year Outlook has just been published in ICIS Chemical Business. Please click here if you would like to download a copy It suggests that 2010 turned out to be a better year than many in the industry had expected. But even so, global operating rates (OR%), at 86%, remain well below those […]
The blog in 2010
The blog’s readership continues to grow. It is now read in 133 countries and 4362 cities, compared to 121 countries and 1244 cities a year ago. Readers also remain very loyal, with 24% reading it twice a week, and spending an average of 1.5 minutes on each visit. As the map above shows, readership continues […]
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