ICB Jan17

Recession the base case scenario for 2017

It is hard to be optimistic about the outlook for 2017. The good news is that policymakers are finally giving up on the idea that stimulus can somehow return us to the growth levels seen when the Baby Boomers were young.  As the Bank of England note in a new Report:   ”Economic theory suggests that a […]

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Consensus wisdom defies reality around the world

“Consensus wisdom” is a handy way of keeping up with events.  Nobody likes to be the person who says “I don’t know” when the boss asks a question about something important.  But unfortunately, “consensus wisdom” is often wrong, as Ipsos MORI confirm in their new ’Perils of Perception‘ survey,  As the authors note: “It highlights how […]

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JFK

Political risk rises as Trump sets out to change America’s relationship with the world

Global markets are becoming ever more complex as the Great Reckoning for the failure of stimulus policies continues. This means that each blog post is now taking much longer to write. It therefore seems sensible to focus on writing 2 posts each week – on Monday and Thursday – in order to continue to provide […]

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FT

No conspiracy on raw materials pricing – the business model has changed

The Financial Times kindly prints my letter this morning on pricing policies for polyethylene. Sir, Conspiracy theories are always good fun, and Robert Bateman’s views on the polyethylene market are no exception (Letters, December 29). But there is a much more prosaic explanation for the pricing structures he describes. The key issue is that until […]

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Blog Dec16

The blog in 2016

2016 saw the Great Reckoning for the failure of stimulus policies begin to impact companies and markets. The blog’s readership has increased significantly as a a result, as shown in the chart above, with its visits now totaling nearly 500k.  Its readership includes 197 countries and over 11k cities.  Readers also remain very loyal, with […]

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MORI Nov16

Today’s New Normal world – the challenge of the 100-year life

2016 saw the start of the Great Reckoning for the failure of stimulus policies. Political and social issues are now beginning to dominate the landscape.  As we saw in the UK’s Brexit vote to leave the European Union, voters no longer see economics as the sole issue in elections.  This paradigm shift was then followed […]

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US Dec16

Chart of the Year: US$, 10-year US interest rates begin to rise

Last year it was the oil price fall.  This year, there is no doubt that the US dollar has taken centre stage, alongside the major rise underway in benchmark 10-year interest rates.  As 2016′s Chart of the Year shows:   The US$ Index (black) has risen 12% since May against other major currencies (euro, yen, […]

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2016′s Word of the Year: “Impossible”

Nobody likes change, particularly on the scale that is taking place all around us today.  Understandably, we prefer to live in a state of Denial.  This is why “Impossible” is my Word of the Year for 2016. The main feature of the word is that it is a statement, and a very clear statement.  People […]

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India’s currency reforms hitting ordinary people, the economy and auto/oil demand

It is now just over a month since India introduced the biggest currency reform the world has ever seen.  In a country of 1.3bn people, it abolished the 2 main banknotes (worth $207bn), that accounted for 86% of all cash in circulation. At 20:15 hours on 8 November, the government announced that the 500 and 1,000 […]

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OPEC move supports US oil production rise, and smart meters

OPEC is living in the past with its recent announcement of new quotas. The simple fact is that the arrival of US shale production means OPEC are no longer the swing producer, able to control the world market. The quotas will have little effect in themselves, as most of the participants will cheat.  Instead, they […]

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