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Brexit disaster looms as UK government power struggle erupts

UK voters were never very bothered about membership of the European Union (EU) before the Brexit vote last year.  Opinion polls instead showed they shared the general feeling of voters everywhere – that their country was heading in the wrong direction, and it was time for a change.  Now, last week’s Conservative Party conference showed […]

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Global supply chains at risk as trade war threat rises

“May God bless the USA and God bless Boeing” was President Trump’s sign-off in his speech on Friday at Boeing’s South Carolina factory.  Earlier he had told the workforce building the 787 Dreamliner: “This is our mantra: Buy American and hire America. We want products made in America, made by American hands. Our goal as a […]

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Basic Skills, not protectionism, key to sustaining today’s High Income, Services-based economies

Suddenly, manufacturing and protectionism have become political issues across the Western world.  President Trump has already formed a Manufacturing Council with the aim of “reshoring jobs” from outside the USA, and is threatening to introduce import duties of up to 45%. The problem, however, as the chart shows, is that this will not help the people who […]

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“Business as usual” the least likely outcome for Europe

Europe is heading in to the Great Unknown, as Monday’s post highlighted.  The UK, The Netherlands and France are not the only political uncertainties that we face.  Elections are also due in Italy and in Germany.    Italian elections. After premier Renzi’s referendum defeat last year, it seems like that Italy will hold elections this year, […]

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Europe heads into the Great Unknown as UK prepares for Brexit; Dutch and French voters go to the polls

Next month sees the start of a process that could change all our lives.  Whether we live in Europe, or outside it, the political decisions about to be made have the potential to impact every country in the world – for better or worse. And yet, nobody has yet begun to put together the various […]

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Trump policies to impact global supply chains, US stock markets

Wall Street’s post-election rally suggests that many investors currently have the wrong idea about Donald Trump. They have decided he is a new Ronald Reagan, with policies that will deliver a major bull market. But those promoting this narrative have forgotten their history. Both men certainly share a link with the entertainment industry. But Reagan […]

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Political risk rises as Trump sets out to change America’s relationship with the world

Global markets are becoming ever more complex as the Great Reckoning for the failure of stimulus policies continues. This means that each blog post is now taking much longer to write. It therefore seems sensible to focus on writing 2 posts each week – on Monday and Thursday – in order to continue to provide […]

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Blog Dec16

The blog in 2016

2016 saw the Great Reckoning for the failure of stimulus policies begin to impact companies and markets. The blog’s readership has increased significantly as a a result, as shown in the chart above, with its visits now totaling nearly 500k.  Its readership includes 197 countries and over 11k cities.  Readers also remain very loyal, with […]

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2016’s Word of the Year: “Impossible”

Nobody likes change, particularly on the scale that is taking place all around us today.  Understandably, we prefer to live in a state of Denial.  This is why “Impossible” is my Word of the Year for 2016. The main feature of the word is that it is a statement, and a very clear statement.  People […]

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Populism rises as global dynamics drive market shifts

We are living in a New Normal world.  Populists such as Nigel Farage, Donald Trump, Marine le Pen and Beppe Grillo are gaining support as economic growth slows and social/political unrest becomes common.  My presentation at our annual conference last week in Vienna highlighted some of the key issues, as Jessie Waldheim of ICIS news […]

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