If you want to know what is happening to the global economy, the chemical industry will provide the answers. It has an excellent correlation with IMF data, and also benefits from the fact it has no “political bias”. It simply tells us what is happening in real-time in the world’s 3rd largest industry. The chart […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Global chemicals volume back to 2006 level
The probable ending of the destocking/restocking phase is a good moment to look back at what has happened to chemical industry volume in recent years. The chart, based on data kindly supplied by Kevin Swift of the ACC, shows how volume has moved, by Region, with Q1 2006 = 100: Global. Volume in Q2 this […]
US housing market decline may start to slow
US new home sales began falling in 2005, when they peaked at 1.4 million a month. Last month, as the above chart from the ACC weekly report shows, they were down to just 337,000. Similarly, new home inventory has risen to 12 months. Each new home uses over $16k of chemicals, so this decline has […]
US home sales keep falling
Kevin Swift at the American Chemistry Council issued a new 2009 Outlook this week. His analysis suggests that we will see a V-shaped recession, as the “massive stimulus being injected into the US and other world economies will foster demand and a virtuous cycle of recovery will engage”. His optimism is very welcome, given the […]
Global chemical growth slows
The latest American Chemistry Council report on global production growth makes sombre reading for anyone outside the Middle East: • Global growth (dark green) is now only 1.4%, versus 4.1% in January • N American growth (dark blue) declined by 2.4% in August • European growth (light green) was down 1.5% in July • Central/Eastern […]
US housing starts ‘at 17 year low’
US housing starts, so important to the chemical industry, are now firmly anchored in recession territory. The chart above, from the ACC’s weekly report, shows they are at levels last seen in 1990-1. And with the current disruption in financial markets, it is hard to imagine that a recovery will start in the near future. […]
The end of ‘stretch targets’
There is little doubt that chemical growth is weakening. The above chart, taken from Kevin Swift’s excellent weekly report for the American Chemistry Council, indicates that a serious downturn is underway.
$216.9bn and still rising
After a while, large numbers lose their power to shock. So Bloomberg and the FT have performed a service this week by reminding us of the scale of losses in the financial sector. They calculate that so far, US and European banks have had to raise $216.9bn of new capital. And, of course, whilst this […]
US housing slows again
Financial markets have been buoyant in recent weeks, as I noted recently. But this is at odds with actual newsflow. The chart above, from Kevin Swift’s excellent weekly report for the American Chemistry Council, highlights once again the dire state of US housing. March should be a buoyant month for house sales. Yet existing home […]
Growth slowdown underway
The OECD produces useful leading indicators each month, which try to capture turning points in the global economy. Its industrial production indicator is very relevant to chemicals, as 85% of demand comes from this sector. The latest outlook is summarised in Kevin Swift’s ACC report. The blue line is actual global industrial production, whilst the […]