Tag Archives | ageing populations

US New Old 55+ generation makes major move back into the workforce

We had another excellent audience for Thursday’s ACS Chemistry and the Economy webinar.  We were swamped with questions both before and during the session, which kept moderator Bill Carroll and the blog on their toes right until the end. The above chart came from the early part of the session, and focused on the two […]

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China and NEA’s ‘demographic dividend’ turns to deficit

October’s post ‘Women now have half the number of children compared to 1950‘ attracted great interest amongst blog readers from around the world.  It highlighted how global life expectancy has risen 50% since 1950 to average 70 years.  Over the same period, the average number of children being born has halved to just 2.5 per woman. It thus suggested today’s […]

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Quantitative Easing – where it all went wrong

Back in September 2011, the Bank of England published the chart above to show how it expected Quantitative Easing (QE) to revive the UK economy*.  It argued: “How does the economy adjust to asset purchases? “The overall effect of asset purchases on the macroeconomy can be broken down into two stages: an initial ‘impact’ phase and an ‘adjustment’ […]

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One in three US adults now in the New Old 55+ generation

“Its only when the tide goes out that you learn who’s been swimming naked.”  We may soon discover the meaning of this wisdom from Warren Buffett, one of the world’s leading investors. The reason is that the macro trends that have driven growth in the global chemical sector are now turning.  For the past five […]

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One in four Japanese now over 65 years

Japan’s new government has embarked on a desperate gamble to restore economic growth after 2 decades of decline. Unfortunately, it is doomed to fail.  The chart from the Financial Times, explains why.  And the reason is very simple: One in four Japanese are now over the age of 65 And this proportion is continuing to rise, […]

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Demographics has “frightening implications” for the economy

The blog first wrote about the potential impact on GDP growth of changing demographics in January 2010, in its first White Paper, ‘Budgeting for a New Normal’  This put forward the Scenario that the world economy could face an: “L-shaped recovery, where we follow the pattern of the Japanese economy after its ‘financial bubble’ burst in 1990. […]

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Time again to ‘Manage by Walking About’

Different times demand different skills.  During the SuperCycle, one could assume growth was a constant.  So forecasting meant a focus on better understanding developments down the value chain in the relevant product silos.  Then managers could be set ‘stretch targets’ to ensure they met expectations for revenue and profit growth. But today, as the blog has […]

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Wishful thinking dominates US government economic forecasts

350k Americans are now reaching the age of 65 each month until 2030. But according to government forecasts, this surge in the retirement population will have little impact on economic growth. That’s the view of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, which has just given its latest forecast for the impact of the ageing […]

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Water, Food and Ageing top global societal risks

The latest Global Risks report from the World Economic Forum warns that its highlighted “societal risks all have a relatively high likelihood of occurring in the next 10 years”. As the chart above shows, the top 3 risks are those also highlighted in ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal’: • Water supply crises are the […]

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