The good news is that the world’s development agencies are waking up to the idea that income level is going to be key to future world growth. They are also starting to recognise that the vast majority of people in the emerging economies are not ”middle-class” with near-Western standards of living. Thus a major new Study from the […]
Tag Archives | Asian Development Bank
2 great myths are helping to destroy company profits as we transition to the New Normal: • In the West, it is that ‘recovery is just around the corner’ • In emerging economies, that everyone is now ‘middle class’ Sadly, this latter claim makes no sense at all. The reason is that it is based […]
China’s auto market growth has clearly stalled. As the chart above shows, August figures (red square) continued the trend of recent months, and were only 5% above 2010 levels (brown line). Rao Da, head of China’s automotive association, also repeated his warning that “there is no sign of a market recovery“. The reason is not […]
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) says Asian governments ‘are caught in the pincer grips of slowing growth and rising inflation’. Whilst the cost of subsidies is ballooning. India, for example, will spend $42.5bn in oil subsidies this year, ‘six times the entire education budget’. As the ADB notes, `increased food and energy subsidies erode fiscal […]
The IMF now sees a 25% chance of a world recession this year, in which global growth would fall below 3%. Its base forecast is just 3.7%, compared to 5.2% before the credit crunch began. Sales growth for most chemicals is tied to GDP growth, so companies should expect volumes to come under pressure as […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.