Tag Archives | auto sales

Global auto markets depend on China for growth

Global auto markets have started to move in new directions.  That much is clear from comment by the major national auto associations.  This will be a shock to manufacturers, who have over-expanded production.  Price wars and capacity cutbacks are inevitable if the industry forecasts are correct. The chart  starts from 2005, and shows the 7 major […]

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EU auto sales stagnate as unemployment remains near record

The good news about EU auto sales, as the chart shows, is that they have stabilised above last year’s record low levels: Sales in the January – May period were up 7% (red square) versus 2013 (green line) at 5.4 million Sales in May itself were up 5% versus 2013 at 1.1m Sales have risen […]

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China auto sales depend on lending and property bubble

The above chart is the blog’s simple guide to forecasting China’s auto sales.  We know from all the data that most Chinese are far too poor to afford to buy a car out of their income.  Average per capita consumer spending in the towns is just $2600/year, after all.  While rural incomes are only a […]

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Indian auto sales decline as the middle class myth disappears

India’s stock market has hit new records this week, as investors anticipate radical policy changes after election results are announced today.  And the chart above highlights a key area behind the need for change, namely the problems of the important auto market: Indian auto sales dipped in April to just 183k (red square) This is […]

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Global auto industry enters “peak car” era

Q1 saw record global auto sales volumes, as the chart above shows: US and EU manufacturers cut prices and offered great financing deals to boost sales Chinese buyers raced to beat new quota restrictions on the main cities Japanese consumers brought forward purchases ahead of April’s sales tax increase Only India disappointed of the 5 major markets, […]

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EU auto sales boosted by 25% discounts and financing deals

When is a car sale not a car sale?  That’s the question that has been bothering the blog in the past few weeks. Of course, it wants to cheer the news that EU auto sales have seemingly recovered.  But as the chart above shows, the recovery is still very limited: Q1 sales at 3.25m (red […]

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Price war looms in US auto market as incentives increase

The blog is awarding itself a pat on the back this morning, as its forecast last month for the US auto market seems to have proved more accurate than those of the experts. Under the heading ‘US automakers increase incentives as sales fail to boom’, it forecast: “The blog therefore suspects that March will be […]

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India’s car buyers remain cautious despite pre-election tax cut

Its pre-election time in India, as the world’s largest democracy prepares to go to the polls next month.  And so auto sales are receiving special attention from the politicians in advance of the vote. Thus the Finance Minister cut taxes last month on all models, to 8% from 12% for small cars, 2-wheelers and commercial vehicles; to […]

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US automakers increase incentives as sales fail to boom

This month is likely to be a very good time to buy a new car in the US.  The reason is that auto manufacturers had believed that a recovery in consumer spending and the economy had become inevitable.  Thus they had built inventories of new cars in anticipation of the sales rush. These are now […]

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Lanxess CEO departs as auto markets enter the New Normal

The blog, like most people, doesn’t like change.  Change creates uncertainty, and makes us all nervous.  Thus in recent years it has privately hoped that its forecasts about (a) the inevitability of the subprime crisis and (b) the transition to the New Normal, would prove wrong.  Life would be so much easier if nothing changed. Thus it is distressed to see developments at […]

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