Auto sales in the key global markets of China, USA and Europe present a mixed picture as we look towards year-end (red square): • China had a strong September, and sales are now up 6% versus 2010 • But the Auto Association claimed this was due to a last minute rush of orders caused by […]
Chemicals and the Economy
US auto sales remain flat
The good news about US auto sales last month was that they were the highest September sales since 2007. The bad news was that they were still below the 1.1 million level, which was the minimum monthly sale from 2005 – August 2008. The reasons for the slight increase in sales were also quite prosaic. […]
US, China, EU auto sales stall
Auto sales in the world’s 3 main markets (China, USA, EU), saw much slower growth in the past 3 months. The chart above shows how they have moved in 2011 (red square) versus previous years. It is clear that the stimulus-led boom seen since 2009 has come to an end: • Overall, sales in the […]
European auto sales down 1% so far in 2011
Most of Europe goes on holiday in August, and so it is only now that auto sales for July and August have been reported. As the chart above shows, the monthly sales figures continued the weak trend seen so far this year (red square): • July’s sales of 1 million were the lowest in the […]
China heads for 45% over-capacity in autos by 2013
China’s auto market growth has clearly stalled. As the chart above shows, August figures (red square) continued the trend of recent months, and were only 5% above 2010 levels (brown line). Rao Da, head of China’s automotive association, also repeated his warning that “there is no sign of a market recovery“. The reason is not […]
US auto sales continue to disappoint
One characteristic of recessions is that recovery is always ‘just around the corner’. We can see this pattern in today’s US auto market. Since 2009, forecasters have been convinced that sales will quickly return to Supercycle levels of 15-17 million/year. But sadly, by around this time of year, it has become clear that nothing has […]
Chrysler warns of China threat
Chrysler CEO, Sergio Marchionne, has issued a wake-up call to Western auto companies about the growth of China’s exports. He warns that they “can’t count on dramatic growth in Asia to drive prosperity“, and suggests that China’s plans to increase auto exports pose an “enormous” risk. Meanwhile, US auto sales disappointed again in July. As […]
China’s auto market goes ex-growth
China’s auto market has gone ex-growth, as the above chart shows. Monthly sales in July (red square) were the 2nd lowest since July 2010. The problem is the continuing fall-out from the end of China’s great credit bubble. Inflation hit a new high of 6.5% in July. More importantly, food prices rose by 14.8%, up […]
Auto sales face weaker H2
This week’s special blog series has focused on auto markets, a critical source of chemical demand. Today, it concludes by summarising developments in China, USA, EU, which account for ~55% of global sales. They have moved in different directions since the Great Recession began: • China’s volumes soared in 2009-10 • The USA has fallen […]
China’s auto sales rise only 2% in Q2
China’s auto industry has seen extraordinary growth since the downturn began in the West in Q4 2008. The government encouraged lending, and also cut taxes on auto sales. As a result, sales jumped 49% in 2009, from 6.9m to 10.3m. And then they jumped a further 29% in 2010. In 2011, however, sales have slowed […]
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