China’s auto industry has seen extraordinary growth since the downturn began in the West in Q4 2008. The government encouraged lending, and also cut taxes on auto sales. As a result, sales jumped 49% in 2009, from 6.9m to 10.3m. And then they jumped a further 29% in 2010. In 2011, however, sales have slowed […]
Chemicals and the Economy
EU auto sales slide 8% in June
The auto industry is a major source of global chemical demand. Today, at the half-year point, the blog begins a 3-part series analysing auto sales trends in Europe (today), China (tomorrow) and total EU, China and USA sales (Thursday). Click here for current USA analysis. For the past few months, Europe has seen a two-tier […]
US auto sales disappoint, again
Time was when US auto sales only rarely dipped below 1.1 million/month. Since the Great Recession began, however, they have only rarely been above this level. Analysts are yet to take this change on board. So June’s 1.05 million figure (red square) was described as a ‘surprise’. Yet as the chart shows, most months this […]
EU automakers worry about demand
The two-tier market for autos in Europe is worrying manufacturers. As the chart shows, May’s sales (red square) were well down on the 2005-9 period, and only 7% above 2010’s very weak number. They are a continuation of recent trends, where demand continues to be sustained by a few key countries: • Germany, France and […]
Global stock markets slide as demand disappoints
It is now 5 weeks since the IeC Downturn Alert was launched. The chart above therefore updates the blog’s regular review of financial markets, showing how these have moved over the same period. Most are down around 4%-5%. Russia is the worst performer (down 8%) and Brazil the best (down 3%). But government bond prices […]
US auto sales slip in May as prices rise
Higher auto prices are slowing US demand. As the chart shows, sales in May (red line) were back below the 1.1 million monthly level again. This used to be a minimum in the pre-2008 period. Now, with just a few exceptions, it seems to have become a maximum. Of course, the rise in May’s average […]
European auto sales fall 4%
EU auto sales have been a two-speed market recently. Strong growth in Germany, France, Benelux and the Netherlands kept sales moving forward versus 2010 levels. But other key markets, including the UK, Spain and Italy have been weak. April’s sales suggest that this period is ending. But, as the blog has feared, the new trend […]
US auto buyers shift towards the New Normal
US auto sales remained stable last month. As the chart shows (red line), they were just above the 1.1 million level. Until the Crisis began in 2008, this was the minimum level for monthly sales, but now it seems to have become more of a maximum. Beneath the surface, some other significant changes are underway: […]
Europe’s 2-speed auto market
EU auto sales are a critical market for chemical companies. So far, 2011 volumes have been stable, down just 2% in Q1 versus 2010. But the trend seems to be weakening, with March volumes at 1.6m down 5% (red line), as shown in the above chart based on ACEA data. The key worry is the […]
US consumers shift to fuel-efficient autos
After 2.5 years of 0% interest rates, $5trn of government stimulus and a payroll tax cut, the US economy is finally beginning to create jobs again. The jobless rate fell last month to 8.8%. And the wider U-6 jobless rate, which includes those unemployed for more than 6 months, fell to 15.7%. In turn, this […]
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