The world’s major shipping index, the Baltic Dry (BDI), has collapsed by 2/3rds since November, and by 80% since its earlier December 2013 peak, as the chart shows. It is now at an all-time low of 509, almost half of its initial 1000 level when established in January 1985. Shipping is the major mode of transport for world trade, […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Shipping index sees major collapse
Shipping markets are usually a good leading indicator of future economic activity. They have their own supply/demand balances, of course. Not every uptrend or downtrend can be taken too seriously. But the Baltic Dry Index of ocean freight costs has done a good job for the blog in the past. So one cannot simply dismiss […]
Shipping index signals China slowdown
The blog’s recent visit to Singapore included several discussions about the slow start to the New Year in China. And these concerns were confirmed last week in the downturn reported by the OECD’s leading indicators for China (Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development). Separately, as the chart shows, the Baltic Dry Index of ocean freight […]
3 major risks for 2011
There seems to be gathering concern in Germany about the outlook for 2011. This is very significant, as the economy has done well this year, and business confidence is at record levels. Bosch CEO, Franz Fehrenbach, who runs the world’s largest auto parts supplier, has warned that “the rebound in commodity prices will put intense […]
Speculative mania continues to drive oil markets
Anyone who followed supply/demand balances might look at the above chart from oil analysts Petromatrix, and conclude that crude oil markets should be relatively weak today. It shows that US oil stocks are only 2.2mb below the record level seen in September 1990, and have grown by 83mb since March. But this is not the […]
China’s slowdown hits shipping market
The Baltic Dry Index of freight costs (for iron ore, grains and coal) follows changes in global demand for bulk shipping. As such, it is an important leading indicator of future economic activity, and chemicals demand. The blog first noted Index movements in October 2007, when this was accurately forecasting the H1 2008 boom. In […]
Inflation makes a comeback
Oil prices last week rose to an all-time, inflation-adjusted, high in New York at over $92/bbl. Meanwhile food and commodity prices have continued their upward march. In China, the rate of consumer price inflation hit a decade-high of 6.5% in August. So why are we still seeing rates of around 2% reported in the USA […]
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