The combination of ageing populations and declining fertility rates means the world is following the Japanese model into deflation – despite all the efforts of policymakers to artificially induce price rises via their money-printing. As discussed last November, under the title. ”Oil price fall set to push Japan back into deflation“, it was already clear then that […]
Tag Archives | Boom Gloom and the New Normal
We seem to be approaching Stage 2 of the Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus, as the economic implications of demographic change become ever stronger. The combination of today’s ageing populations with the collapse in fertility rates means it is totally unrealistic to expect growth rates to continue at the SuperCycle levels of the past. They were turbo-charged by […]
The world is about to be hit by a demand shock equivalent to 1973′s supply shock. Yet, astonishingly, most commentators remain so focused on central bank activity, that they have completely missed what is happening. Here’s how it is playing out. You may remember the ‘The pH Report‘ forecast in early December that: “Oil prices […]
Who would have believed the blog would still be here, 7 years after it began with a post from Thailand in June 2007? Who would have believed the range of developments that have appeared for it to discuss over this period? It started at the end of the SuperCycle as central banks pumped cash into the […]
Different times demand different skills. During the SuperCycle, one could assume growth was a constant. So forecasting meant a focus on better understanding developments down the value chain in the relevant product silos. Then managers could be set ‘stretch targets’ to ensure they met expectations for revenue and profit growth. But today, as the blog has […]
“Everybody knows” that full economic recovery is inevitable. And today, everybody absolutely knows that it must now be very close. After all, it has now been 4 years since the crisis began. This expectation is understandable, as anybody who began work from 1983 onwards has only ever known constant growth. There might have been the […]
The 2012-14 Budget period offers great opportunities, as well as great challenges. Will companies continue to focus on short-term developments in financial markets? Michael Porter’s Shared Value concept instead offers us a powerful model for creating future growth. Will policymakers stop focusing on the 24 hour news cycle and instead begin to set out the […]
The 2012-14 Budget period offers great opportunities, as well as great challenges. In the short-term, the challenges may well seem more important. But they should not blind companies to the fact that the opportunities have probably never been greater. Of course, it is hard to be very optimistic about the shorter-term outlook for the global […]
SUMMARY The global economy does not seem to be in good shape. Policymakers seem to fail to grasp the importance of the demographic changes that are underway in both the Western and emerging economies. Yet demographics drive demand. The result of this failure by policymakers is that the world seems to be heading towards a […]
Between 1854 and 1982, the US economy was in recession for 35% of the time, according to Deutsche Bank research. But between November 1982 and December 2007, as the chart shows, it was only in recession for 5% of the time, just 16 months in 25 years. Something very unusual clearly happened during this period. […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.