Tag Archives | boom

Boom/Gloom Index shows sentiment remains positive

US and UK policymakers have been more upbeat recently in claiming that ”the economy was turning a corner”.  Although they have not yet gone as far as in September 2009, when the G20 issued a statement that began ”It worked!”, and claimed the recession was now over. Helpfully, the IeC Boom/Gloom Index has again done its job in capturing this improved sentiment.  […]

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Financial markets at top of their trading range, again

Financial markets cannot make up their minds about the outlook. As this month’s IeC Boom/Gloom Index shows, sentiment (blue column) remains exactly at the dividing line between optimism and pessimism. This parallels the behaviour of the S&P 500 Index (red line). It had recovered strongly from March 2009, but has since found it very difficult […]

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Austerity levels jump

The blog’s Boom/Gloom Index (blue column) reaches its 3rd anniversary this month. It was introduced to help monitor sentiment in financial markets, on the basis that “many markets are clearly being ruled by sentiment”. It has since done a good job in identifying peaks and troughs: • Peaks have been focused on periods when central […]

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Boom/Gloom Index stalls as austerity worries rise

EU policymakers like to pretend that the Eurozone debt crisis was resolved by the adoption of last March’s new Treaty. An even more disturbing thought is that they might even believe their own propaganda. Who knows? But on the ground, it is crystal clear that the problems continue to multiply. Latest data from the Bank […]

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Boom/Gloom Index and S&P 500 disconnect

The blog, like many readers, has become rather fond of the IeC Boom/Gloom Index since it was launched in June 2009. The aim to was to track market sentiment, and it continues to perform this task. It also throws up intriguing parallels, and sometimes disconnects, with financial markets. As the chart shows, this month is […]

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Selling the Rallies

There was a sustained rise in the number of wealthy Western BabyBoomers entering their peak consumption years between 1980-2000. In turn, stock market multiples rose (the US Dow Jones price/earnings ratio rose from 8 to 32), as investors valued earnings more highly. ‘Buying the Dips’ in the market became the easy way to make money. […]

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Boom/Gloom Index reaches record high

The IeC Boom/Gloom Index is now 2 years old. It was developed as a measure of market sentiment, and so far its track record has been good: • It is now at an all-time high (blue column), which mirrors financial market confidence and their belief that chemicals may be in a supercycle • The austerity […]

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China battles to achieve a ‘soft landing’

China’s economy has been on steroids for the past 2 years. Faced with the loss of export sales after the financial crisis began in 2008, the government doubled bank lending overnight (red column above). It also introduced a $580bn stimulus programme (13% of GDP). This included subsidised sales of electrical appliances, and was great news […]

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Boom, Gloom and the New Normal

The blog is delighted to announce the title of its new eBook, jointly authored with fellow blogger, John Richardson. It explains how Western BabyBoomers are changing chemical demand patterns, again. We believe it will become vital reading for all those working in the global chemical industry. The first chapter of the book will be published […]

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China’s interest rates “have to go up more” – World Bank

What happens if you suddenly double bank lending in a country, and make it equal to 1/3rd of total GDP? And, as part of the experiment, add a further 13% of GDP via a $580bn stimulus programme? We don’t know yet, because it has never been done before. But we are about to find out. […]

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