Tag Archives | Brent oil prices

US, Iran to sell oil in January as Libya ramps up volumes

Both the US and Iran are likely to be moving oil into world markets early in the New Year. The lifting of the US export ban has led to early announcements of oil sales: Vitol will move the first cargo via the Enterprise terminal in Houston in early January.  Iran is expecting to have sanctions lifted around the same […]

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$25/bbl oil – probably now only a question of “when”, not “if”

Oil prices are just $1 or so away from falling back into the $10 – $35/bbl range that has dominated most of history. Thus we are now reaching a second critical moment in oil markets since Stimulus began in 2009, as the chart shows: The first was the end of the Stimulus rally which ran […]

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US 10-year interest rates jump 23% as Fed debates 0.25% hike

Media hype over the potential for a 0.25% interest rate rise by the US Federal Reserve is well underway.  But as often happens these days, this is missing the bigger picture. The issue is simple: developments in China are far more important to the global economy than anything the Fed might, or might not, do […]

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Group think on oil prices puts company profits at risk

Shell Chemicals General Manager, Kate Johnson, asked a great question at our Conference last week, to which not a single hand went up in reply, as everyone had forecast an oil price around $100/bbl : “How many of your companies used $60/bbl as their oil price forecast in the 2015 Budget?” “Group think” is clearly […]

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Oil price forecasts based on myths, not proper analysis

Did your company or investment manager use $50/bbl as a forecast Scenario price for oil this year?  If not, why not?  And has this question even been asked, as you finalise forecasts for 2016? In recent months, many readers have told me despairingly of their efforts to suggest alternative Scenarios to last year’s “consensus” view […]

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Algorithms drive oil prices up 6%, yet fundamentals remain weak

It only took 2 days for a shocking example to confirm my concern on Monday about the volatility being created by central bank stimulus: As the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) chart shows, a major oil price move took place early in Wednesday’s trading US WTI oil had been trading below $44/bbl, when suddenly prices jumped from […]

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5 Critical Questions every Company and Investor Need to Answer

Today’s uncertain economic and oil price  environment has created chaos in petrochemical feedstock and product markets.  This creates major risks for producers, consumers and investors. ICIS and International eChem have therefore decided to combine our resources to launch a new Study, that will analyse the potential impact of these developments on the olefins, aromatics and […]

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IEA Sept15

Oil stocks at record levels as demand growth slows, supply rises

OECD oil inventories have never been higher.  They were 2.9mb at the end of July, and are expected to have risen further since then, according to energy watchdog the International Energy Agency: In terms of days of forward cover, they are now at 63 days in the OECD overall They are at 68 days in […]

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Impact of $25/bbl oil – free pH Report webinar next Tuesday

The consensus failed to forecast last year’s oil price collapse.  So is today’s conventional wisdom correct to suggest that prices will now stabilise at current levels and then move higher? We focus on this critical issue in this quarter’s free webinar from The pH Report: The potential for $25/bbl to be the “new normal” for […]

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NYSE margin Aug15

Stock market volatility surges as margin debt hits danger level

Global stock markets turned in a vintage experience last week for those who like horror movies. Continued sell-offs in China finally convinced some financial investors, and some senior Western policymakers, that its economy might not be quite as strong as they had assumed.  The ensuing panic led to record profits for the high frequency traders (HFTs), as the Dow Jones […]

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