Tag Archives | Brent oil prices

Hedge funds moving away from ‘buy on the dips’ strategy

In recent years, financial markets have believed that “everything is for the best in this best of all possible worlds“.  Good news has taken markets higher.  So has bad news – as investors assume policymakers will apply more stimulus. As a result, a whole generation of managers and analysts has grown up without having to learn the fundamentals of supply/demand analysis.  And […]

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Oil price, China Outlook – free pH Report webinar tomorrow

There have so far been 3 stages to the oil price collapse since I first forecast this development in mid-August: The first stage saw prices reach my initial forecast target of $70/bbl in November They then fell further to reach my second price target of $50/bbl in January Since then, prices have been trading in a wide range. Daily moves of $2/bbl, […]

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Oil price rally a “Head Fake” says International Energy Agency

Why wouldn’t oil prices return to their long-term average around $30/bbl?  After all,  the world is facing a long-term energy supply glut.  The latest monthly report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) confirms my view that the recent rally has simply been a trading coup: “HEAD FAKE “Behind the façade of stability, the rebalancing triggered by the price […]

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Oil price, China Outlook – free pH Report webinar next Tuesday

There have so far been 3 stages to the oil price collapse since I first forecast this development in mid-August: The first stage saw prices reach my initial forecast target of $70/bbl in November They then fell further to reach my second price target of $50/bbl in January Since then, prices have been trading in a wide range. Daily moves of $2/bbl, […]

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Oil prices Mar15

Oil prices have further to fall as US inventory hits new records

Another week, and another record high for US oil inventories.  Oil prices clearly have some way to go, before they return to being based on the fundamentals of supply and demand. Thankfully, the looking-glass world of $100/bbl prices has finally begun to shatter over the past 9 months.  And we can expect prices to return to historical […]

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China exports deflation to the West

Unfortunately, the European Central Bank (ECB) does not read the blog, or yet subscribe to ‘The pH Report’.  If it did, it would have been forewarned back in August that a collapse in oil prices was potentially about to provide the catalyst for the arrival of deflation. Instead, as the Minutes of its critical January […]

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10 day Superbowl oil rally ends with storage tanks close to full

The 10-day wonder of the SuperBowl oil rally has ended.  Instead, we are returning to the world of the Great Unwinding, and prices are coming under pressure once more from the energy supply glut and weak demand. But it would be wrong not to mark the coup that took Brent prices up 26% from $50/bbl to $63/bbl […]

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Markets pause for breath as oil traders enjoy upstream volatility

There are some signs of a recovery in some markets, but the overall picture is still very quiet for what should be the seasonally strongest quarter of the year for the West.  Markets should also have been strong in Asia, in the run-up to this week’s Lunar New Year (LNY), but they have remained relatively […]

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Deflation gains: China’s plastics market sees over-capacity

More and more commentators are beginning to recognise that deflation is becoming inevitable in many major economies: China’s producer prices fell -4.3% last month, and its consumer prices rose just 0.8% Eurozone consumer prices fell in December to -0.2%, and are likely to have fallen further in January US prices rose just 0.8% in December and are […]

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Oil prices jump 20% in 2 days in SuperBowl weekend coup

An astonishing coup appears to have begun 10 days ago, in the last 45 minutes of trading in US oil markets.  Yet we still don’t know who master-minded it, or their full objectives.  . What happened to oil prices?  Prices jumped 8% in the last 45 minutes of trading on Friday 30 January, taking Brent to $53/bbl and […]

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