Tag Archives | Brent oil prices

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The oil market’s ‘triangle’ pattern continues

The other side of the short-term volatility in oil markets, as discussed yesterday, is that price movements are still trapped in their long-term triangle pattern. As the chart shows, Tuesday’s $3/bbl move was not part of a break-out to new high ground. In fact, Brent’s prices remain within the same $99/bbl – $127/bbl range they […]

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ExxonMobil expect gas use to rise 60% by 2040

ExxonMobil’s annual energy review is always a fascinating read. This year’s issue looks out to 2040 for the first time. It thus forecasts the relative share of the major fuels over the next 30 years. Interestingly, it also shares the blog’s belief, as set out in our ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal‘ eBook, that […]

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IMF warns of protectionism, and possible Depression

Whisper it softly, so as not to alarm the CEO. But the world is starting to look worryingly like the picture of mid-2008. Official bodies such as the IMF are always cautious in forecasting a downturn. They rightly worry that they could help to cause the decline, by hitting confidence. But there comes a moment […]

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DuPont warns and stresses “productivity initiatives”

By now, companies should be reordering for the New Year. CFOs have achieved their working capital targets for year-end. And the commercial people should be planning Q1 sales. So far, however, it seems that this restocking has proved rather weak. This parallels September’s disappointment, when the return from the summer holidays also failed to produce […]

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Petchem trading slows as holiday period nears

The blog was in Singapore last week, running the final New Normal workshop of the year with co-author John Richardson. The main topic during the breaks was the continuing concern over China’s demand. This is reflected in the latest Downturn Monitor above. On the positive side, China’s PTA prices improved due to hopes of easier […]

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Markets slip in China and Europe

Many investors and policymakers believe that the global economy is just in a ‘soft patch’. They expect a quick recovery early in 2012. This parallels their misguided confidence in Q1 that a strong recovery was underway. But petchem markets, a much more reliable indicator, are suggesting we are at the start of a sustained downturn. […]

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Policy makers talk, whilst markets weaken

Petchem markets are telling us something very important about the state of the global economy. They are doing their usual job as leading indicators. Prices for all 4 of the blog’s benchmark products are now down over 20% since it launched the IeC Downturn Monitor at the end of April. The OECD’s leading indicators also […]

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Brent oil prices stay in their “triangle”

English children have a nursery rhyme that seems to summarise price movements in Brent oil markets: “Oh, The grand old Duke of York, He had ten thousand men; He marched them up to the top of the hill, And he marched them down again. And when they were up, they were up, And when they […]

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UK government prepares for “economic Armageddon”

The UK government has now confirmed that it is preparing contingency plans for “economic Armageddon“, if the eurozone falls apart. This highlights the difficulties currently facing the world economy. Meanwhile the Eurozone leadership has clearly begun to panic. According to Reuters’ Paul Taylor, control of the crisis has passed to the so-called ‘Frankfurt Group”, comprising: […]

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The Downturn arrives

It is 5 months since the blog launched its IeC Downturn Alert, using prices from 29 April. It wrote then that: “They don’t ring bells at market turning points. Otherwise, we could all retire to the Bahamas.” But its argument was that a peak was likely, as crude oil had remained stable at $125/bbl for […]

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