Tag Archives | central banks

“Reservations are no longer necessary at many high-end restaurants”

Think back a moment to September 16 2008.  Newly released transcripts analysed by the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times reveal for the first time what was really going on that day at the world’s most important central bank. Lehman Bros, one of Wall Street’s largest investment banks, had just gone bust.  Merrill Lynch, another giant, had […]

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Global economy approaches a T-junction

Intuition’s great benefit is that it provides a different perspective.  Thus the intuitive concept behind the launch of the IeC Downturn Monitor was that April 2011 would prove a watershed moment for policymakers’ Recovery Scenario after 2008′s financial crisis.  Their Scenario essentially had two elements: Acting as a ‘lender of last resort’ when the major banks stopped lending to each other and the […]

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The trend is your friend, until it isn’t

Investing in today’s financial markets is relatively easy.  You simply have to believe that governments in the US, Japan and Europe will continue to provide plenty of free cash to investors as part of their Recovery Scenario of a quick return to ‘normal growth’.  It doesn’t matter whether the investor believes in the Scenario, the driver is simply the fear of […]

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Can oil prices stay at $100/bbl forever?

Sometimes the blog’s mind goes back to its happy days in Houston, Texas, when it set up and ran ICI’s feedstock and petchems trading office.  And it thinks through the factors that it would have considered when deciding whether to buy, sell or sit on the sidelines. The memory came back during last week’s lively ACS webinar, when […]

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Growth remains below SuperCycle trend, whilst debt is building

Whisper it quietly, so as not to disturb policymakers’ dreams.  But the charts above from the Financial Times confirm, as if proof were needed, that their policies of the past 5 years haven’t worked. The charts compare trends in economic growth in the world’s two largest economies, the Eurozone and the USA.   As the arrows indicate, both are […]

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“I’m Sorry, America” says Fed’s official responsible for QE operations

Over the years, the blog has been very critical of the quality of people appointed by the US Federal Reserve to undertake the actual trading involved in its ‘Quantitative Easing’ (QE) programmes: In October 2008, it felt “distinctly underwhelmed” by news that the person supervising decisions on which financial institutions should live or die during the peak of the Crisis […]

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Benzene highlights rising risks in financial markets

The blog is busy preparing its presentations for its World Aromatics and Derivatives Conference later this month, co-organised as always with ICIS.  As well as looking at the impact of the transition to the New Normal, it will be investigating the current state of benzene markets.  These are always an excellent leading indicator for the global […]

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Benzene challenges financial markets’ rosy view of the outlook

This is Budget week, when the blog prepares to present its Budget Outlook for 2014-16.  On Saturday, it reviewed its 2012 forecast.  And starting tomorrow, it will analyse auto markets – as these are the largest single driver of demand - before issuing its 2014 Outlook next Saturday. The chart above presents the dilemma facing companies, […]

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Most major financial markets have doubled since 2009 lows

The period since March 2009 has been a wonderful time for most investors in the major markets.  As the blog’s 6-monthly update shows, almost every index has increased, and by large amounts: Russia has been the biggest winner, up 151%, due to its oil and gas export position The US is up 147%, as the […]

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Pimco warns on “negative impacts” of central bank policiy

A new report from Pimco, the world’s largest bond fund manager, makes it clear they share the blog’s worries about the increasingly negative impact of western central bank policy: “Central banks have reached a critical inflection point in which the negatives of their aggressive policies may be outweighing the positives and in fact hampering growth. […]

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