Most commentators chose to ignore the warnings on inflation and recession provided by chemical industry data. As a result, they have been blindsided by the speed and scale of the S&P 500’s downturn. But the Sentiment Index has proved far more reliable.
Chemicals and the Economy
The blog’s 15th birthday – and the chemical industry remains the best leading indicator for the global economy
The US is moving into recession as the Atlanta Fed chart confirms. Chemicals have been warning of this for some time. But policymakers and commentators remain in Denial about the economy. They prefer to focus on their computer models, and ignore the real world outside their window.
A look back from 2030 at the success of COP26
Looking back over the 2020s, it is easy to see how forward-looking companies emerged as Winners in the race to decarbonise, as I discuss in my new analysis for ICIS Chemical Business. “If we are going to hold the rise in the Earth’s temperature to 1.5 degrees, we must reduce emissions significantly between 2020 and […]
Contingency planning is essential in 2020 as “synchronised slowdown” continues
The IMF has now confirmed that the world economy has moved into the synchronised slowdown that I forecast here a year ago. Its analysis also confirms the importance of the issues highlighted then, including “rising trade barriers and increasing geopolitical tensions”, a sharp decline in manufacturing, contraction in the auto industry and structural forces such […]
Ageing Perennials set to negate central bank stimulus as recession approaches
The world’s best leading indicator for the global economy is still firmly signalling recession. That’s the key conclusion from the chart above, showing latest data on global chemical industry Capacity Utilisation (CU%) from the American Chemistry Council. The logic behind the indicator is compelling: Chemicals are one of the world’s largest industries, and also one […]
UK risks “crashing out” of EU after election without trade deal
Yesterday, senior EU negotiators warned that “the chances of Britain crashing out of the EU without a new (trade) deal were now “over 50%””. Clearly, therefore, the UK’s preparations are not going well. Instead of building trust, the UK’s Brexit Secretary, David Davis, seems to think that threats – such as promising “the row of […]
Slide in Q2 operating rates is bad omen for H2 economic outlook
The chemical industry is the best leading indicator for the global economy. The slide in operating rates (OR%) around the world during the seasonally strong Q2 period. is a clear warning that global economic growth may be stalling. This should be a major wake-up call for anyone still hoping that growth may recover to the Boomer-led SuperCycle level. The latest update from […]
International Year of Chemistry 2011
2011 has been named International Year of Chemistry by the United Nations. The date coincides with the centenary of Marie Curie winning the Nobel Prize for Chemistry. A range of activities is being planned on a national and international basis to support the Year. It gives the industry a welcome chance to promote the positive […]
The blog’s 3rd birthday
The blog continues to go from strength to strength. It is now read in 130 countries and 3680 cities, up from 111 countries and 2088 cities a year ago. Its readership is truly global, with the Top 10 countries including Benelux, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Singapore, Turkey, UK and USA. It has also expanded […]
US interest rates turn negative
The irresponsibility of some parts of the global banking system continues to upset the blog. First, there was news that several banks are planning to award themselves huge ‘bonuses’, based largely on their trading success. Yet the money they are using for this trading has mostly been provided by central banks and governments. And it […]
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