China has been a major beneficiary of the globalisation movement in recent years. In turn, it has become a tremendous importer of most chemicals. It accounts for up to 50% of total demand for many Asian chemical producers, and is a critical factor in most supply/demand balances. This position was already changing, however, as China […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Auto suppliers face difficult time as bankruptcies rise
The decline in auto sales is now threatening many industry suppliers around the world: • Today, the main Japanese car parts group has warned that “Toyota’s production cuts will cause bankruptcies among suppliers if the government restricts aid to large manufacturers”. • Last month, the main US associations requested $18.5bn in support from the Obama […]
US home sales keep falling
Kevin Swift at the American Chemistry Council issued a new 2009 Outlook this week. His analysis suggests that we will see a V-shaped recession, as the “massive stimulus being injected into the US and other world economies will foster demand and a virtuous cycle of recovery will engage”. His optimism is very welcome, given the […]
Consumers prioritise “needs” versus “wants”
The current recession is the blog’s fourth, after those of the mid-1970s, and early 1980’s and 1990’s. It is, however, already different from these, as it is the only one which has led to comparisons being made with the 1930’s Great Depression. As Harvard’s Prof Shiller has noted, “Depression fear did not take off” in […]
Crisis “more serious than the 1930’s”
Last August, the blog noted that politicians were beginning to wake up to the scale of the current crisis. There are still many politicians (and businessmen) who still hope we are facing just a ‘normal recession’. But last week, IMF head Dominique Strauss-Kahn told a Malaysian audience that “advanced economies are already in a depression”. […]
Global chemical production down 4.4% in November
Global chemical production is now falling at an alarming rate, down over 4% in November, as core demand from housing/construction and auto markets collapses. Only the Middle East is now seeing positive growth year-on-year. As the chart shows (using ACC data): • N America is now down 12% • W Europe/C&E Europe are down over […]
Chemical production growth goes negative
The chart, taken from the weekly ACC report, shows just how badly chemical production has been hit in recent months: N America. This region has been worst affected, with volumes down 12% in November versus 2007. W Europe/CEE. Both regions were down 3% in October versus 2007 Asia/Latin America. These regions are just positive, with […]
A dip or a downturn?
Are we seeing just a dip in economic growth? Or are we at the start of a downturn that may run for months, or even years? The answer to this question lies in the US, which still accounts for 25% of global GDP, and where US consumer spending is 70% of US GDP. Optimists maintain […]
US auto sales catch subprime fallout
Two of the largest US auto manufacturers, GM and Ford, have now followed Wal-Mart and Tesco’s lead in detecting a change in consumer sentiment. GM, after announcing particularly strong Q2 Asian and emerging market sales, added that US sales declined 7% as a result of ‘increasing fuel prices and concerns about housing’. Ford said that […]
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