Tag Archives | China

OBOR demographics May17

China’s changed priorities signal end to stimulus

China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ project and the need to reduce pollution have replaced “growth at any price” as key government priorities, as I describe in my latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog Companies and investors are assuming it is “business as usual” in China ahead of the important 19th […]

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US oil exports May17

Oil prices under pressure as US oil/product exports ramp up

On Monday, I discussed how OPEC abandoned Saudi Oil Minister Naimi’s market share strategy during H2 last year. Naimi’s strategy had stopped the necessary investment being made to properly exploit the new US shale discoveries. But this changed as the OPEC/non-OPEC countries began to talk prices up to $50/bbl. As CNN reported last week: “Cash is pouring […]

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Pioneer May17

US Permian’s shale oil surge highlights OPEC’s failed strategy

OPEC and Russia made a massive mistake last November when when they decided to try and establish a $50/bbl floor for world oil prices.  And now they have doubled down on their mistake by extending the deal to March 2018. They have ignored 4 absolutely critical facts:   Major US shale oil producers were already […]

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China’s lending bubble sees Beijing home prices jump 63%

Greed and fear are the primary emotions driving China’s housing and auto markets today, as China’s lending bubble hits new heights.  For ordinary citizens, greed is the key driver:    Average home prices in Beijing rose an eye-popping 63% between October 2015 – February 2017    In Shanghai, one enterprising estate agent (realtor) […]

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Smartphone profits under threat as market goes ex-growth

The outlook is becoming clearer for the global smartphone market, and it confirms my judgement in November, when reviewing Q3 sales: “It seems likely that a focus on price and affordability will come to dominate. In turn, pricing pressures on suppliers will intensify. The key challenge facing the market is that it has gone ex-growth.” […]

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The global economy’s best leading indicator forecasts a downturn

If you want to know what is happening to the global economy, the chemical industry will provide the answers. It has an excellent correlation with IMF data, and also benefits from the fact it has no “political bias”.  It simply tells us what is happening in real-time in the world’s 3rd largest industry.  The chart […]

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ICB Jan17

Recession the base case scenario for 2017

It is hard to be optimistic about the outlook for 2017. The good news is that policymakers are finally giving up on the idea that stimulus can somehow return us to the growth levels seen when the Baby Boomers were young.  As the Bank of England note in a new Report:   ”Economic theory suggests that a […]

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US Dec16

Chart of the Year: US$, 10-year US interest rates begin to rise

Last year it was the oil price fall.  This year, there is no doubt that the US dollar has taken centre stage, alongside the major rise underway in benchmark 10-year interest rates.  As 2016′s Chart of the Year shows:   The US$ Index (black) has risen 12% since May against other major currencies (euro, yen, […]

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2017 Global Outlook – ACS webinar on Thursday

This year has seen a paradigm shift in how major governments view trade.  We may well be seeing an end to globalisation:   In Europe, the United Kingdom voted to leave the E.U., and Italy may well have a referendum on leaving the euro   In the U.S., President-Elect Donald Trump’s 100-day Action Plan will see […]

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Populism rises as global dynamics drive market shifts

We are living in a New Normal world.  Populists such as Nigel Farage, Donald Trump, Marine le Pen and Beppe Grillo are gaining support as economic growth slows and social/political unrest becomes common.  My presentation at our annual conference last week in Vienna highlighted some of the key issues, as Jessie Waldheim of ICIS news […]

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