Tag Archives | China

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Q4 results show companies still waiting for something to turn up

We all live in hope.  That seems to be the underlying message from the blog’s quarterly survey of company results. Nothing has changed since last quarter or indeed Q2, when BASF noted that “achieving our earnings target is significantly more challenging today than we had expected”. Yet this latest quarter was, of course, supposed to be […]

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Sentiment weakens as US stock markets wait for more QE

Sentiment, as measured by the IeC Boom/Gloom Index has weakened considerably over the past 3 months as the chart shows: It peaked at 12 in November, hitting its highest level since before the 2008 Crisis began (blue column) It then drifted lower in December, before rallying back to 9 in the New Year But now […]

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Beijing pollution Feb14

Beijing smog makes it “almost uninhabitable for human beings”

Chapter 6 of Boom, Gloom and the New Normal in October 2011 was one of the first detailed analyses to highlight the way in which pollution was rapidly moving up the political agenda in China.  Controversial at the time, it warned: “Recent growth in China and India has come at a price: Poor air quality, chronic water […]

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US PVC exports fail to grow in 2013, despite shale gas boost

Trade data for net US PVC exports seems to be trying to tell us something very important about the current state of the global economy.  As the chart shows, based on data from Global Trade Information Services: Net exports failed to grow in 2013 (red column) versus 2012 (black) and were only up 2% versus 2011 […]

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China’s rural areas need basic goods, environmental clean-up

Average incomes in China are very low by Western standards, and certainly not “middle-class” as the blog discussed yesterday.  It is also easy to forget that almost half the population still lives in rural areas.  Official data shows their incomes have shown major growth over the past 20 years, but are still less than a third of urban incomes today. The chart […]

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China’s urban consumers depend on property ‘wealth effect’

One of the great myths of modern times is that China is now full of middle class people with Western levels of consumption.  Nothing could be further from the truth. Annual per capita incomes have certainly soared over the past two decades.  But the main impact has been to lift people out of absolute poverty, […]

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BBC reports ‘How China Fooled the World’

Last night, the BBC ran a 1 hour documentary by its senior editor Robert Peston, who won countless awards for his work during the subprime crisis.  It completely confirmed the arguments put forward by the blog in recent months about the scale of the economic crisis now facing China.  The BBC introduced the documentary as follows: […]

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China’s lending bubble could now lead to zero GDP growth

China has been primarily responsible for driving global growth since the Crisis began in 2008.  Auto sales, for example, would have seen negative growth world-wide without China.  And auto manufacturing is the world’s largest manufacturing industry.  The chemical industry has been in a similar position.  Whilst China is also now responsible for nearly 50% of global […]

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“The dog ate my homework”: excuses for economic slowdown

There were never any excuses from policymakers during the BabyBoomer-led SuperCycle from 1983 – 2007.  The Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, came to be styled ‘The Maestro’.  Whilst the Governor of the Bank of England argued that his efforts had created the NICE decade of Non-Inflationary Constant Expansion. Central bankers came to be seen as wise […]

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JP Morgan says ‘Buy China’, as coal stocks show economy slowing

China seems to be trying to tell the outside world something quite important about the impact of its economic policy changes.  But to judge by most expert commentary, the outside world is convinced they are bluffing.  Thus JP Morgan issued a Buy recommendation yesterday on the Shanghai market: “Chinese stocks will probably rally as much […]

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