China’s economy is continuing to slow, as the new leadership takes power. As the chart shows of H1 performance: Electricity consumption (red line) was up 5% versus H1 2012 Bank lending was up 4% These levels are of course well below the published GDP figure of 7.5% for Q2, but the two types of data […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Don’t look down
Governments and central banks never spot recessions till it is too late. Thus after the 2008 Crisis, for example, it was recognised that only a few independent experts such as the blog had forewarned of the danger. Today’s situation seems potentially to be as serious as in 2008. Therefore as promised yesterday, the blog has decided to present its own analysis of the […]
Consensus views on growth, commodity regulation, start to change
In early March, the blog described itself as feeling like “a lonely voice, focused on what is really happening in the real world”. But gradually since then, the consensus view on growth and commodities regulation has begun to shift in its direction. For example, a recent New York Times article on China by Nobel Prize-winner Paul Krugman could have […]
China PE demand grows as food safety worries increase
China’s polyethylene (PE) demand has seen encouraging signs of growth in H1. As the chart above shows (based on Global Trade Information Services data): Total demand is up 13% in 2013 (red column) versus 2011 (blue) Domestic production is up 7%, whilst imports are up 18% The Middle East is the biggest winner, with its sales […]
Unique and timely insight on China from John Richardson
Credit where credit is due, is the blog’s motto. It would thus like to recognise the insight of co-author John Richardson in being one of the first people to warn publicly that the economies of China and India both faced enormous risks in their quest to reach developed country status. Writing 18 months ago, when […]
China’s GDP data suggests rebalancing is now urgent
China has now published initial data on its key areas of GDP growth in 2012. As the chart shows, this highlights the major task ahead of the new leadership as they seek to rebalance the economy towards a more sustainable future: • Infrastructure (green) continued to increase as a share of GDP to 46% • […]
China’s polyethylene market sees slow growth
The usual flow of China’s polyethylene (PE) production data has been interrupted since the start of the year. But the good news is that normal publication has now been resumed. Thus the chart above shows market developments between January – April, versus 2012 and 2011, including trade data from Global Trade Information Services. PE’s position […]
China’s ‘Ponzi loans’ now 69% of GDP
China’s electricity consumption (green line) is the best real-time guide to economic developments. It is now beginning to confirm the blog’s suggestion that a major shakeout is underway as the new leadership takes charge: • Consumption soared in response to the massive stimulus programme • But it is now up only 5% so far this […]
China’s Q1 PVC imports drop 98% as housing bubble targeted
Q1 data from Global Trade Information Services provides further evidence of the slowdown underway in China. As the chart shows, the dramatic drop in net PVC imports suggests the new leadership are determined to burst the house price bubble they inherited: • Imports (red column) were down a startling 98% versus Q1 2011 (blue) • […]
China’s electricity consumption growth just 2% in March
As new premier Li Keqiang noted some years ago, China’s GDP statistics are “man-made and therefore unreliable”. But as leadership targets, they are very important in signalling the direction to be taken. Thus the blog is quite amazed that the financial sector has only now begun to wake up to the implications of the new […]
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