Tag Archives | China

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Q2 results highlight continued uncertainty over outlook

The chemical industry continues to be the best leading indicator we have for the global economy. Whilst stock markets were continuing to move higher during H1, its depressed level of capacity utilisation was signalling that the economy was far more fragile than generally realised. Company results for Q2 reflect this concern. Of course some, tied […]

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China’s collapsing stock market underlines need for New Normal reforms

My latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog is below  | Jul 27 15:08 | Red is a lucky colour in China, which is why share price displays go red when prices are rising. A green display means prices are falling, the opposite to stock markets elsewhere. There is a similar discontinuity between the short-term impact […]

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BASF warns on outlook; Dow warns on China, ethylene cycle

BASF and Dow Chemical both warned on the outlook when presenting their H1 results last week: BASF CEO Kurt Bock warned, “We have for second quarter in the row in chemicals no growth worth mentioning . . . that is not a gratifying development.  We have the impression that there is little growth dynamic at the moment and our customers remain extremely cautious […]

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China’s auto prices tumble as sales fall 3% in June

Its not a good time to be selling new cars in China.  As the chart shows: Sales fell 2% in Q2 (red line) versus 2014 (green), with June down 3.4% This is the first time sales have fallen in a quarter since Q1 2011 (pink) China’s auto dealer association said customer visits to dealers “dropped […]

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H1 sees worst-ever number of chemical plant force majeures

The first half of 2015 was the worst half-year for force majeures in the chemical industry since reliable data became available via ICIS news in 2005.  As the chart shows, there were 479 reports of outages, more than double H1 2014 and well above the previous peak of 375 in H1 2011. This is absolutely […]

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China’s new car market goes ex-growth as used car sales take off

My latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog is below |Jun 30 17:45 By Paul Hodges of International eChem Major structural change is under way in China’s passenger car market. New car sales grew just 1.2 per cent in May, as the country develops a used car market for the first time in its history. […]

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New oil price fall is matter of “when”, not “if”, as inventory builds

Financial players have become convinced in recent months that the oil price will rise.  And so far, this has been a self-fulfilling prophecy.  Their buying has led to oil being stored all over the world – in tankers floating at sea and in shale oil wells, as well as in storage tanks. Unsurprisingly, prices have […]

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Impact of China’s New Normal policies on oil, petchem and financial markets – free pH Report webinar next Tuesday

China was the “saviour “of the global economy after the financial Crisis of 2008.  Its massive stimulus was worth over $10tn from 2009 to 2014 – half of the total amount. But now China’s new leadership has changed course, and has introduced its New Normal policies.  As a result, its economy is slowing, and its […]

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China’s lending, electricity consumption continues to slow

‘Bad news’ seems to have become ‘good news’ as far as China’s economy is concerned.  In the past, most analysts simply ignored the possibility of a major slowdown.  Now that the slowdown is underway, they still ignore it  - this time, because they are sure further stimulus is just around the corner. But time passes, […]

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China auto sales rise just 1% as New Normal slowdown bites

The above chart was my Chart of the Year last December, under the title “China’s auto sales bubble begins to burst‘.  So it seems only sensible to update developments 6 months later. The key question, of course, is whether my headline was right?  Could it be that China was not going to deliver endless growth […]

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