Tag Archives | China

Apple captures smartphone profits as market shifts to services

Consumers clearly love smartphones.  The global market is growing fast with 380m sold in Q4, up 31% versus 2013.  But manufacturers might be forgiven for not being so sure. As the chart above shows, major change is underway in the market.  The concept of ‘affordable luxury’ is disappearing as the market polarises between affordability and luxury. Samsung’s market share has dived from […]

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Oil price, China Outlook – free pH Report webinar next Tuesday

There have so far been 3 stages to the oil price collapse since I first forecast this development in mid-August: The first stage saw prices reach my initial forecast target of $70/bbl in November They then fell further to reach my second price target of $50/bbl in January Since then, prices have been trading in a wide range. Daily moves of $2/bbl, […]

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China becomes net exporter of PVC as property bubble bursts

China’s property bubble is collapsing, with average house prices now down 10% from their peak.  As agents Knight Frank note, “The developers have two to five years of stock to clear. So until that has been cleared, prices aren’t going up any time soon” We are also seeing more bankruptcies amongst property developers.  These began a […]

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Oil prices Mar15

Oil prices have further to fall as US inventory hits new records

Another week, and another record high for US oil inventories.  Oil prices clearly have some way to go, before they return to being based on the fundamentals of supply and demand. Thankfully, the looking-glass world of $100/bbl prices has finally begun to shatter over the past 9 months.  And we can expect prices to return to historical […]

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China PPI Mar15

China exports deflation to the West

Unfortunately, the European Central Bank (ECB) does not read the blog, or yet subscribe to ‘The pH Report’.  If it did, it would have been forewarned back in August that a collapse in oil prices was potentially about to provide the catalyst for the arrival of deflation. Instead, as the Minutes of its critical January […]

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Global shipping index hits all-time low

The world’s major shipping index, the Baltic Dry (BDI), has collapsed by 2/3rds since November, and by 80% since its earlier December 2013 peak, as the chart shows.  It is now at an all-time low of 509, almost half of its initial 1000 level when established in January 1985. Shipping is the major mode of transport for world trade, […]

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Vast amounts of stimulus have not made China “middle class”

Debt can’t make a country middle-class overnight.  Even a massive amount of debt can’t achieve this.  Even the largest amount of debt in history can’t do this.  China’s experience since 2007, when it increased debt four-fold, proves this. As McKinsey have reported, China increased its debt from $7tn in 2007 to $28tn by the middle of […]

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Deflation gains: China’s plastics market sees over-capacity

More and more commentators are beginning to recognise that deflation is becoming inevitable in many major economies: China’s producer prices fell -4.3% last month, and its consumer prices rose just 0.8% Eurozone consumer prices fell in December to -0.2%, and are likely to have fallen further in January US prices rose just 0.8% in December and are […]

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Mckinsey says global debt now 3x global GDP, and rising

A major new report from consultants McKinsey confirms my concerns over the dramatic increase in global debt levels since stimulus policies began in 2008.   As their chart above highlights: Global debt has risen by $57tn to $199tn since 2007, nearly 3x global GDP Government debt is up by $25tn, with three-quarters of this in the developed […]

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China’s slowdown hits PE imports from N America and NE Asia

A manufacturing slowdown is now well underway in China, as the latest official and unofficial Indices confirm. The government is mitigating this via its policy of self-sufficiency – which means a steady reduction in the need for imports – as well as by increasing exports of higher value-added products such as polyethylene (PE).  PE is the largest volume plastic, used in […]

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