Tag Archives | China

5 Critical Questions every Company and Investor Need to Answer

Today’s uncertain economic and oil price  environment has created chaos in petrochemical feedstock and product markets.  This creates major risks for producers, consumers and investors. ICIS and International eChem have therefore decided to combine our resources to launch a new Study, that will analyse the potential impact of these developments on the olefins, aromatics and […]

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IEA Sept15

Oil stocks at record levels as demand growth slows, supply rises

OECD oil inventories have never been higher.  They were 2.9mb at the end of July, and are expected to have risen further since then, according to energy watchdog the International Energy Agency: In terms of days of forward cover, they are now at 63 days in the OECD overall They are at 68 days in […]

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FT GU Sept15

China fooled the world, and now comes the Great Unwinding

The global commodity super-bubble is coming to an end, as I describe in my latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog It is exactly a year since we forecast that a Great Unwinding of stimulus policies was underway, due to a major slowdown in China. As we warned on beyondbrics: Oil and commodity prices are […]

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NYSE margin Aug15

Stock market volatility surges as margin debt hits danger level

Global stock markets turned in a vintage experience last week for those who like horror movies. Continued sell-offs in China finally convinced some financial investors, and some senior Western policymakers, that its economy might not be quite as strong as they had assumed.  The ensuing panic led to record profits for the high frequency traders (HFTs), as the Dow Jones […]

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Inflation turns to deflation as stimulus debt now has to be repaid

Its not what we know that causes the major problems.  Its what we think we know, but don’t. We know, for example, that markets balance supply and demand by shifting prices up and down.  Too much demand and/or too little supply, will mean higher prices and inflation.  This is what happened as the BabyBoom took place: Medical […]

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“If the lips are gone, the teeth will be cold”: China’s New Normal policies require companies to undertake radical strategy reviews

Wishful thinking can be terribly dangerous for company profits.  Taken to extremes, it can lead them into bankruptcy. Recent developments in China thus make it essential for every company to immediately review its strategy for doing business in/with the country, against a realistic outlook for 2016-2018 GDP growth will likely be zero, and could well […]

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Question mark

Q2 results highlight continued uncertainty over outlook

The chemical industry continues to be the best leading indicator we have for the global economy. Whilst stock markets were continuing to move higher during H1, its depressed level of capacity utilisation was signalling that the economy was far more fragile than generally realised. Company results for Q2 reflect this concern. Of course some, tied […]

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China’s collapsing stock market underlines need for New Normal reforms

My latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog is below  | Jul 27 15:08 | Red is a lucky colour in China, which is why share price displays go red when prices are rising. A green display means prices are falling, the opposite to stock markets elsewhere. There is a similar discontinuity between the short-term impact […]

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BASF warns on outlook; Dow warns on China, ethylene cycle

BASF and Dow Chemical both warned on the outlook when presenting their H1 results last week: BASF CEO Kurt Bock warned, “We have for second quarter in the row in chemicals no growth worth mentioning . . . that is not a gratifying development.  We have the impression that there is little growth dynamic at the moment and our customers remain extremely cautious […]

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China’s auto prices tumble as sales fall 3% in June

Its not a good time to be selling new cars in China.  As the chart shows: Sales fell 2% in Q2 (red line) versus 2014 (green), with June down 3.4% This is the first time sales have fallen in a quarter since Q1 2011 (pink) China’s auto dealer association said customer visits to dealers “dropped […]

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