The Yangtze River Delta region (which includes Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang) accounted for 22% of China’s GDP in 2007. It is focused on exports to the USA and EU, and is a major centre for chemicals production. But now, like the Pearl River Delta, its economy is slowing fast. According to the China Daily, an […]
Tag Archives | China
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has cut its estimate of expected global GDP growth in 2009 to just 1.2%. It therefore expects the world to record its first back-to-back annual decline in oil demand since 1982/3. It says oil production last month was unchanged at 86.2mbd, despite OPEC cutbacks and the first fall in Russian […]
China has just reported its first fall in exports for 7 years. These were still growing at 19.1% in October, but fell 2.2% in November. The suddenness of the downturn is also shown in the import figures, which were down 17.9% versus 2007. The numbers confirm the blog’s long-expressed fear that China, and the Asian […]
In September, the blog wondered whether “China’s interest in remaining the manufacturing capital of the world may be starting to wane”. Yesterday, Lou Jiwei, the chairman of China’s sovereign wealth fund (China Investment Corporation) confirmed the new focus on domestic growth. He suggested that “if China can do a good job domestically, that is the […]
The World Bank has cut its growth forecast for China’s GDP to just 7.5% next year. Only 3 months ago, it was expecting 9.2%. And the Bank warns that the economy is dependent on “higher public spending” for more than half its forecast growth next year. Chemical companies will also be alarmed by the Bank’s […]
The G-20 was created in 1999, after the financial crises that had hit emerging countries from 1997 onwards. It includes the G7 group of major industrial companies, plus the main emerging economies, including the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China). Its ministerial meeting this weekend became a preparatory session for its first-ever Heads of State […]
TOTAL have adopted a very clear strategy for surviving the downturn. The results statement today particularly highlights their success in strengthening their balance sheet. Net debt to equity now stands at just 15.4%, whilst they are “maintaining a high-level of liquidity and divesting non-strategic holdings”. TOTAL also see a need “in the short-term” to adjust […]
The blog has been thinking about last week’s leaked report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). This said that the world needs “to invest $360bn each year until 2030 to replace falling oil production and increase supply”. The IEA based this sum on a new analysis of 500 oilfields, which showed the current depletion rate […]
The Pearl River Delta is the original heart of China’s industrialisation process. The blog first visited 20 years ago, as China slowly opened up to the West, and was amazed to discover that cities such as Guangdong were already as large as Hong Kong. Today, along with Shanghai, the region is the manufacturing capital of […]
China was the first major country to recognise the need for economic restructuring, back in August. Today, the State Council announced further details of its plans, as Q3 GDP growth slowed to 9%. Agriculture and rural development are now the key priorities. This builds on the recent Communist Party decision, described as being of “historic […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.