Half of China’s population lived in abject poverty as recently as 1979, with incomes less than $2/day. Since then, economic policy has largely focused on reducing this number. As the chart shows, only 7% are still in this position (brown column). Instead, 70% now earn $2 – $10/day (green), and 19% have incomes up to […]
Chemicals and the Economy
China’s leaders aim for “greater political courage and wisdom”
China’s new leaders have made a good start. Its too early to say whether they will really tackle the key issues, but the change in style is noteworthy in itself: • New premier Li Keqiang made his first official trip to Shenzhen, visiting the statue of Deng Xiaoping along with new president Xi Jinping • […]
Shanghai’s stock market falls back to 2009 levels
Every stock market chart tells a story. And the chart above is no exception. It highlights investors’ roller-coaster ride over the past 5 years since the Shanghai stock market hit its all-time peak of 5903 in October 2007: • After this it collapsed until October 2008; rallied fiercely till July 2009; and then resumed its […]
China’s new leaders face slowing economy, rising protests
There are two great myths in the modern world. One, as discussed yesterday, is that central banks can restore growth to SuperCycle levels. The other is that China’s economy will grow consistenly at high rates for the next decade. Both are wishful thinking, not robust strategies. The chart above highlights the problems with the second […]
China’s PE market heads into the New Normal
This is a big week for politics. Today is the US Presidential election, which could have major implications for US-China trade, as Mitt Romney has said he will brand China a ‘currency manipulator’ on his first day in office. It is also the start of China’s Party Congress. The line-up of new officials will tell […]
China’s auto sales remain in the slow lane
Mark Twain, the famous US writer, put it well when he warned that: “It isn’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you think you know for sure.” This has certainly been the case with auto sales in China. In 2010, leading analysts JD Power expected that “the pace of growth […]
China’s PE market continues to stall
In the SuperCycle, polyethylene (PE) demand growth was closely linked to economic growth. Our research for the 2008 Feedstocks for Profit study showed, for example, a 1: 1 ratio between global growth in GDP and PE demand between 2002-7. But since the Crisis began, the linkage has become much more complex. China’s market presents the […]
China’s electricity consumption growth stalls
The blog continues to hear very depressing news from its contacts in the market about the state of China’s economy. The most depressing report is that GDP growth may actually have stalled in recent weeks. And the latest figures for electricity consumption add to the general sense of gloom. These are one of the more […]
China’s polyethylene demand disappoints, again
Trade statistics present an awkward problem for the cheerleaders in financial markets. They show what is really happening in China’s economy, rather than what the analysts would like to happen. Polyethylene is the bellwether product for the economy. And latest trade data from Global Trade Information Services suggest caution over H2 prospects. As the chart […]
China’s auto dealers cut prices as inventories rise
All is not well with China’s auto market. On the surface, as the chart shows, sales appear to have picked up after January’s poor performance: • Q1 sales (red line) were flat versus 2011 (green) • Q2 sales were up 12%, due to a strong May and June performance But…. • It is unclear if […]
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